Japan is not likely to turn into a global military power under an agreement with the United States announced Monday and instead will focus on the increasingly unstable Pacific region, defense experts said.
The country will be allowed to expand from the self-defense role it has operated under since World War II and will extend its maritime and missile defense capabilities to protect or come to the aid of allies under attack, according to the agreement.
Japan and the U.S. will cooperate closely on cyber and space capabilities, the U.S. will defend Japan’s right to a cluster of contested islands in the East China Sea, and both parties will maximize their missile defenses to defend each other’s interests against any potential aggression by North Korea or China.
The biggest change is that Japan’s maritime patrols no longer will be limited to their own waters.
But while Japan can now operate globally, that doesn’t mean it will, analysts said.
Japan’s defense spending is “traditionally about 1 percent of [gross domestic product],” said Nicholas Szechenyi, Center for Strategic and International Studies chairman in Japan studies. “So the extent that Japan can dramatically expand [its military operations] is somewhat limited.”
While Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has pushed for more Japanese influence on global security, including wanting to rename Japan’s military from the Self-Defense Forces to the “National Defense Force,” he faces a heated debate at home on his defense policy reforms, Szechenyi said.
Last week, a defense official who has closely tracked the new U.S.-Japan security agreement said Abe would not have come to the U.S. this week and made the announcement if he were not confident he would win legislative support once he returns to Japan.
Michael Auslin, director of Japan Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, said Japan’s lack of ability to project power — typically embodied in an aircraft carrier — will be a limiting factor. In March, the Japanese commissioned the JS Izumo, a helicopter carrier that is slightly smaller than a U.S. amphibious landing vessel and which currently has no capability to launch aircraft, due to the previous restrictions on the Japanese military.
“I don’t think you should expect to see Japanese military get involved in lots of things around the globe,” Auslin said. “Like most countries around the globe, they don’t have global capabilities, they have regional capabilities.”
Japan does have six Aegis ballistic missile defense-enabled destroyers that have trained and tested with the U.S. in exercises for years, and Japan was already considered to have the the most advanced program of the U.S. allies’ maritime missile defenses, Auslin said. Japan is upgrading its first six with more advanced missile systems it developed in partnership with the U.S., and has committed to building two more Aegis ships, according to Congressional Research Service Navy expert Ron O’Rourke.
But the country will be committed to its regional security, due to increasing instability in North Korea and increased territorial tension and disputes with China.
Japan’s “primary security interest is much closer to home and will remain so,” said Michael Mazza, American Enterprise Institute research fellow in foreign and defense policy studies. “Japan will operate further afield in Asia, and potentially come to the aid of friends and partners in Southeast Asia — step up their ability against North Korea. Japan will be doing more in Asia than projecting power globally.”
