Waiting for 2016

That is why it came as something of a surprise when, last month, former Sen. Jim Webb, a Virginia Democrat, announced he had formed an exploratory committee, the first step in running for president.

“I made this decision after reflecting on numerous political commentaries and listening to many knowledgeable people,” Webb said in a video posted to YouTube and his website.

For Webb, who served only one term in the Senate and is not nationally recognized, getting in early was likely his best opportunity to raise money and his name ID, especially if he ultimately finds himself competing with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination.

Asked whether Webb had seen a benefit to an early announcement, spokeswoman Jessica Vanden Berg responded: “So far, he’s had an outpouring of support both financially and [from] volunteers all across the political spectrum and country, so it seems that way.”

For most potential candidates, however, the next few months will be a waiting game until official announcements are made.

Sen. Marco Rubio said last month that he would reach a decision about running for president “in the coming weeks.” Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush will decide after the new year. Sen. Rand Paul has said he will announce a presidential campaign, if there is one, in the spring. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton appears to be in no rush to announce a bid for president: She will continue to deliver paid speeches next month.

There is no right or wrong time to announce a campaign, per se, and the timeline shifts from one election cycle to the next. Many Republicans are hopeful that this presidential election cycle might bring a happy medium of the past two.

In 2008, an unusually early spate of announcements spurred an arms race among candidates to announce their candidacies, and spend money, as quickly as possible.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani announced the formation of an exploratory committee in November 2006, as did Sen. John McCain. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee made his bid official in January. By the end of February, Mitt Romney had announced his bid, and Ron Paul had formed his own exploratory committee.

After early months with their feet hard on the accelerator, the campaigns began to run out of gas. By summer, the McCain campaign was broke and many senior advisers fled the team. McCain would recover to win the nomination, but not without scars to his campaign.

“A lot of campaigns learned the hard way in 2008 about the dangers of starting too early,” said one national Republican strategist with presidential campaign experience. “In 2012, there was an overreaction to that.”

During the 2012 cycle, the Republican field did not begin to flesh out until much later, the summer of 2011. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain announced earlier than most candidates, in May. Mitt Romney, who announced in June, did not run his first television advertisement until November 2011; in the previous presidential election cycle, by contrast, Romney’s campaign released its first TV ad in July 2007.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry famously did not launch his campaign until August 2011, having only decided in June that he would run for president.

At first, the timing seemed ideal: Republican voters weren’t jazzed about their options, and the first candidates were beginning to drop out of the race. Perry entered the field and instantly rocketed to the top tier of contenders.

But with front-runner status came unmatched attention, and when Perry’s campaign tripped up, the scrutiny was crippling.

“He had no early innings in the campaign to make errors he could recover from later,” said Ray Sullivan, who was a senior adviser to Perry during that campaign.

This time, candidates might search for a middle ground.

“You don’t want to start so early that you can’t run a full campaign, and you don’t want to start so late that you can’t gain enough money,” the Republican strategist said. “There’s a balance.”