Sen. Chuck Schumer’s decision to vote against an Obama-backed nuclear agreement with Iran probably won’t diminish his chances of becoming the next Democratic leader if support for the deal continues to increase.
A total of 24 Senate Democrats have come out in favor of the nuclear deal with Iran, leaving the White House just ten votes shy of the 34 Democrats needed to sustain Obama’s veto of an expected vote to disapprove of the agreement.
That leaves 20 undecided Democrats and in order to sustain Obama’s veto of the Senate’s vote, the president will need to round up support from just half of them. A second, high-profile Democrat, Sen. Robert Menendez, of New Jersey, announced his opposition to the deal on Tuesday, but so far only two Democrats are firmly in the “no” column.
Schumer, of New York, will be among those voting against the deal and to override Obama’s veto. His decision is particularly awkward for the White House, given Schumer’s position as the number-three Senate Democrat and the expectation that he will become the chamber’s Democratic leader in 2017.
While Sen. John Kerry called Schumer’s judgement of the deal “incorrect,” the three-term senator has mostly escaped criticism from fellow Democratic lawmakers, according to Democratic aides on Capitol Hill. Schumer, they said, maintains his position as the anointed successor to Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., who will retire in 2017.
“Every member of the caucus has committed to voting for him and nothing has changed,” a top Democratic aide told the Washington Examiner.
Most of the criticism against Schumer has come from groups outside of Congress or people who are closely aligned with Obama.
“Senator Schumer siding with the GOP against Obama, Clinton and most Democrats, will make it hard for him to lead the Dems in ’16,” former Obama senior advisor Dan Pfeiffer tweeted.
The liberal group MoveOn launched what it is calling a donor strike against Schumer, whose opposition to the nuclear deal, they believe, will put America on a path to war.
According to the group, more than 23,000 MoveOn members have pledged to withhold $11 million in campaign contributions from “Democratic candidates who succeed in sabotaging diplomacy,” including Schumer. MoveOn already opposed Schumer’s ascension to Democratic leader because they believe he is tied too closely to Wall Street.
But Democratic aides say the MoveOn threat doesn’t worry Schumer, who spent weeks consulting with experts and groups both in favor and opposed to the deal.
That list included Kerry and his predecessors at the State Department, Madeleine Albright and Henry Kissinger. Schumer also consulted the pro-Israel groups AIPAC and J Street, which oppose and support the deal, respectively.
In a statement issued on Aug. 7, Schumer said he ultimately concluded the deal would not go far enough to stop Iran from creating a nuclear weapon.
“To me, the very real risk that Iran will not moderate and will, instead, use the agreement to pursue its nefarious goals is too great,” Schumer wrote.
Christopher Hahn, a former Schumer aide who is now a radio talk show host, said Senate Democrats won’t reject Schumer over a single vote in part because they value his ability to get Democrats elected.
A powerful fundraiser and strategist, he was instrumental in helping Senate Democrats regain the majority in 2006. Two years later he led the Democrats to a 60-seat victory that allowed them to pass legislation with a filibuster-proof majority.
In the upcoming 2016 election, the party has a chance to regain the majority from Republicans, and Schumer is considered the most capable of steering the party to victory.
“If the Democrats plan to take the majority, the man that is going to lead them there is Chuck Schumer,” Hahn said. “I think the majority of the Democratic caucus understands that.”
