Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley is way behind in Iowa, but could he still emerge as a kingmaker?
As unlikely as it seems, it’s possible due to a the rules of the Democratic caucus process. If any candidate doesn’t reach the 15 percent viability threshold in a precinct, the failing candidate’s supporters must shift their vote elsewhere.
In a race where the top two polling candidates average within less than a point of each other, O’Malley’s 4.4 percent could knock either Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders over the edge in many precincts. But in order for that to happen, a majority of O’Malley supporters would have to lean one way or the other.
“I think [O’Malley] will definitely have an impact,” former Iowa Democratic Party executive director Norm Sterzenbach told the Washington Examiner. “There’s a lot of different scenarios. But I don’t think his supporters lean one way or the other. I imagine his support will split.”
During the 2004 Iowa caucus, candidates Dennis Kucinich and John Edwards cut a deal to lend their supporters to each other if one of them did not pass the minimum benchmark in a given precinct. Kucinich did not garner enough support and his supporters who cared to stick around on caucus night after their candidate was ruled out supported Edwards and helped him secure a second place finish in Iowa.
At the CNN Democratic town hall on Monday night, just seven days out from the caucus, O’Malley told his supporters to “hold strong at your caucus” even if it appears he will not be viable in their precinct.
O’Malley currently polls at 4.4 percent across Iowa, but his numbers could be much higher or lower in some of the state’s over 1,700 precincts. In precincts where O’Malley is not viable, his swing vote will only be effective if Clinton and Sanders run a tight race in that caucus room. Clinton is barely ahead of Sanders in the RealClearPolitics polling average for the state.
“The important thing over the next days is that Clinton and Sanders don’t want to alienate O’Malley,” Democratic strategist Doug Thornell told the Examiner.
“But if there is some sort of arrangement or agreement between campaigns it’s not the easiest thing and it’s not something you want to telegraph until towards the end of the caucus,” he added.
The organizing would occur between neighbors, as county chairs and precinct captains reach out to their O’Malley counterparts in their district. And the phone calls may not come in until just a few days before the Feb. 1 caucus.
“The other thing to remember is that [O’Malley] could have a lot more support on caucus night the way caucus plays out,” Sterzenbach said.
“People will want to be with the winner,” Thornell added.
