If it seems like there is something different about the 2016 presidential race, that’s because there is.
In the 2008 cycle, contenders started jumping in early, led by Barack Obama. But this time around, there aren’t any runners officially in the race yet
A few, including former Sen. Jim Webb, a Democrat, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, a Republican, have announced they are exploring bids for president. Others, like Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, have all but announced their candidacies.
Still, there’s a big difference between gearing up to run for president and actually running. Once a candidate announces his bid, his schedule of events accelerates and the scrutiny from challengers and the media increases.
But while they haven’t yet announced, the candidates are already running for president. Invisible primaries have been in full swing on each side as likely candidates begin to assemble campaign teams, establish fundraising operations, and court the biggest donors.
“The amount of money that’s needed to run is so large that much of the invisible primary today has more to do with meeting with donors, rather than meeting with voters,” said Tom Rath, a veteran New Hampshire Republican operative, who has witnessed many candidates cycle through the Granite State over many elections.
With fundraising also comes the question of timing. A candidate would likely not announce a bid now, in the middle of the fundraising quarter; instead, many will probably wait until the end of a quarter, in hopes of posting an eye-popping first fundraising haul later.
Another factor in deciding when to announce a bid for president is when other candidates plan to jump in. In 2008, Obama’s early announcement and momentum forced Hillary Clinton to begin her campaign earlier than she had hoped. This time around, the opposite dynamic is playing out, with many candidates indicating they will wait until spring or later to announce bids, spurring a domino effect of later announcements.
“For one thing, the Democratic side is frozen,” Rath said. “We’re used to seeing some activity on both sides, and that really does slow it down.”
Of course, campaigning isn’t easy either, and many first-time candidates must prep for the challenges of a presidential campaign — lest they end up like former Texas Gov. Rick Perry circa 2011, uttering “oops” before a live national debate audience.
Many likely 2016 candidates are currently deep in that stage of preparation, crafting policy platforms and testing out their messages in low-pressure venues.
“There’s a reason a lot of candidates run multiple times before they become the nominee. It’s tough,” said Hogan Gidley, who worked as communications director to Rick Santorum during the 2012 presidential race. “It’s difficult to answer questions in living rooms in Iowa, cafes in New Hampshire and barbecue joints in South Carolina.”
