Now that Hillary Clinton’s sizable lead in Iowa has evaporated, her campaign is subtly trying to lower expectations for the Jan. 3 caucus in an effort to prevent a big drop in the New Hampshire polls if she loses in the Hawkeye State.
The poor-mouthing started in earnest last week, when poll numbers indicated Clinton’s chief Democratic rival, Barack Obama, had erased Clinton’s lead in both states for the first time in the campaign.
Chief among those trying to downplay her chances in Iowa is her husband, Bill Clinton, who offered a curious prediction on the “Charlie Rose Show” last week.
“Edwards might win in Iowa,” Clinton told Rose, referring to Democratic candidate John Edwards, who is running third in Iowa and New Hampshire.
In fact, Clinton continued, “I never thought she [Hillary Clinton] had a big lead in Iowa and never thought she could have one.”
Clinton backed up his prediction by noting Edwards, who placed second in the Iowa caucus four years ago, has done much more campaigning in the state than Hillary Clinton.
The former president echoed comments made the same day by other Clinton campaign staffers.
“I think he’s actually been ahead most of the year,” Clinton’s Midwest campaign co-chairman, Jerry Crawford, said of Edwards.
The willingness to publicly surrender the lead marks a sharp turnaround for the Clinton campaign, which as recently as Dec. 3 was touting poll numbers showing the New York senator hanging on to a five-point lead in Iowa.
Campaign strategists said the Clinton camp is practicing the common strategy of trying to ease a potentially major loss by pretending there was nothing to lose in the first place.
“The fact that the Clinton people are shading expectations isn’t surprising or different than what any other campaign has done before,” said Ted Devine, a veteran Democratic strategist.
Andrew. E. Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said if Clinton loses the Iowa caucus, she could drop 11 points by the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary. A win for Obama in Iowa could give him an extra seven points in the Granite State.
“If Obama wins in Iowa, Clinton’s electability is going to plummet,” Smith said. “In my view, it’s not so much who wins Iowa, it’s who loses.”
Strategists say the Clintons are promoting Edwards for a reason — they would rather lose to Edwards than Obama.
“If she can’t win, Edwards winning is definitely better for her,” a former longtime Clinton operative said. “It stops Obama from being a juggernaut.”
