MANCHESTER, N.H. — Saturday night promises to deliver the bloodiest Republican presidential debate of the campaign season. Polls show Donald Trump well ahead in the lead up to Tuesday’s primary, with a traffic jam of GOP aspirants behind him. Every candidate has an interest in attacking at least one opponent. Top tier candidates need a strong showing in the state, while lower-tier candidates have their very survival at stake. There is no longer cause for anybody to hold their fire. Below is a review of the lines of attack that we’re likely to see.
Jeb Bush
Having spent tens of millions of dollars and started out as a presumed top-tier candidate only to flounder in polls, the former Florida governor needs to do well on Tuesday to prove to donors that he’s a viable candidate, or else they’ll bolt, most likely to support Sen. Marco Rubio. Bush has criticized both Rubio and Sens. Ted Cruz for lacking the appropriate level of governing experience to become president. But he’s been harder on Rubio, who he’s also said has no accomplishments and would struggle explaining his position against rape and incest exceptions in abortion law in a general election. Bush has attacked Trump for being too unserious and unstable to be president, saying on Saturday morning that Trump needed therapy.
Ben Carson
The usually mild mannered Carson has been on a tear this week, attacking Sen. Ted Cruz because his campaign, ahead of the Iowa caucuses, spread reports that Carson was dropping out of the race. At times the former surgeon has tried to portray himself as above the fray and avoided attacking Cruz by name. But he’s also implied Cruz is a false prophet and likened Cruz’s response to the Iowa controversy to Hillary Clinton’s reaction to questions about her handling of Benghazi. Though Carson isn’t a serious contender in New Hampshire, he competes with Cruz among evangelical voters, who will become more important as the race moves south.
Chris Christie
Christie has spent more time in New Hampshire than any other candidate. He needs a strong showing on Tuesday to salvage his campaign, which polls suggest has faded in the past month. Given his sense of urgency, in the run-up to Saturday’s debate, he’s taken aim at Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio for lacking experience beyond a few years in the Senate and running for president. He blasted Rubio as the “boy in the bubble” and said businessman Donald Trump was just a make believe reality TV star. He’s also argued that if New Hampshire chooses a candidate who hasn’t spent enough time in the state, it would endanger the state’s status as the first primary in the nation. The bottom line: If Christie goes down in New Hampshire, he’s going to do it with guns blazing, Butch Cassidy-style fire fight.
Ted Cruz
The days when Cruz avoided attacking Donald Trump now seem like an ancient memory. This past week, the Iowa winner has ripped Trump for having a liberal record on healthcare, property rights, and a host of other issues. Cruz coined the term “Trumpertantrum” to characterize the businessman’s reaction to his defeat in Iowa, and even suggested an unstable Trump, if elected, might nuke Denmark. Cruz has also taken aim at Rubio. The Florida senator’s strong third place finish in Iowa gave him a boost, so Cruz needs to take some of the wind out of his sails in New Hampshire. Cruz has likened Rubio’s positions on immigration, trade, and government surveillance to those of Hillary Clinton’s. He’s also taken aim at the idea that Rubio would be the most viable in a general election. Cruz doesn’t need to win in New Hampshire, but he needs to perform well enough to squelch claims that he can only do well in states with a critical mass of evangelicals and very conservative voters, as was the case with the two previous Iowa winners.
John Kasich
The Ohio governor’s decision to expand Medicaid through Obamacare has hurt his prospects with conservatives, so he has staked his entire candidacy on New Hampshire, which allows independents to vote in the Republican primary. A poor showing here, and his campaign will be over. In recent days, Kasich has largely tried to avoid hitting other candidates, seeking to emphasize his own background and experience, though he has dismissed Trump as a “blowhard.”
Marco Rubio
Rubio is looking for at least a strong second place finish in New Hampshire, hoping that it will discourage several of the candidates believed to be competing for the same voters (Christie, Kasich, Bush) from continuing their candidacies. Their exit would help Rubio to consolidate support in the later states. He will be under attack Saturday by virtually everybody on the debate stage, because most of the other campaigns have an interest in stopping his momentum. This creates two challenges for Rubio. First, there is the fact that his whole pitch is that he’s the inspiring optimistic candidate. That means cannot come across as too negative. At the same time, he doesn’t want to be on the defensive the whole time, so he’ll have to land some blows of his own. Second, at a time when many people view him as one of the top three contenders for the nomination, Rubio doesn’t want to be seen as punching down by brawling with a lower-polling candidate like Christie. Rubio’s strategy has been to attack Trump as unserious, question Cruz’s own record on immigration and foreign policy, present Bush as part of the old guard, and dismiss Christie as desperate. Also, after racking up high-profile endorsements this week, Rubio has a chance to draw a contrast with Cruz, who has won little support from Senate colleagues. But that runs the risk of allowing Cruz to present himself as the true opponent of the Washington Establishment.
Donald Trump
As always, Trump is the big wildcard. He started off this week by accusing Cruz of stealing the election in Iowa and of lying about his record on Obamacare, but in the past few days has backed off. Perhaps, with New Hampshire polls showing him in a commanding lead, he’s wary of taking a risk by getting into a scrum. On the other hand, he may have a tough time resisting the chance to mock his opponents on a big stage, especially if he comes under fire. Bush in particular is a favorite target of Trump. Earlier Saturday, the businessman tweeted, “Jeb Bush, whose campaign is a total disaster, had to bring in mommy to take a slap at me. Not nice!” At the same time, Trump will want to fend off any late Rubio surge, and he has attacked the Florida Senator in the past as “weak” on immigration.
