The Republican establishment adores Paul Ryan, but the idea that he’ll swoop in and become the GOP presidential nominee in July is drawing chuckles from lawmakers who will serve as delegates at the Republican National Convention in July.
“That’s nonsense,” Sen. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., said in an interview when asked about the prospect of getting the House Speaker to run. “I think you have at this point three individuals who have put a lot of skin in the game, who have worked to get to this point, and one of the three will be the nominee.”
Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., who endorsed the now-defunct candidacy of Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., said he had serious doubts that Ryan would become the nominee, or anyone else other than those in the race today.
“I think we are likely to have one of the three be the nominee,” Scott told the Examiner. “From a percentage standpoint, well over a 50 percent chance.”
Ryan has strenuously denied he is seeking the nomination. He has repeatedly told reporters he believes the nominee should be someone who is running for president, though he has not pledged specifically that he will turn down the nomination if he wins it in a vote at the convention.
An open convention became more likely Tuesday when Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, trounced Donald Trump in the Wisconsin primary. The win secured dozens more delegates for Cruz and narrowed Trump’s path to garnering the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination outright.
Republican leaders are now planning for the possibility of an open convention, in which the nominee may not be selected until delegates cast multiple ballots.
If Trump, Cruz or third-place Gov. John Kasich, R-Ohio, can’t win, some speculate that the convention delegates might tap the popular Ryan, a rising star in the party and who has smoothly succeeded the fractious leadership of his predecessor, former Speaker John Boehner, of Ohio.
Republican elders have suggested a “fresh face” might make a better November candidate than either Cruz, Trump, who leads in delegates but are very unpopular with the GOP establishment.
Ryan, 46, is widely admired and liked within GOP circles and is also considered by some to be a fresh candidate, even though he has been in Congress for 17 years and ran unsuccessfully as the Republican vice presidential nominee in 2012.
Ryan himself laughed off the idea during a radio show interview with Hugh Hewitt.
“I’m not that person,” Ryan said “I’d like to think my face is somewhat fresh, but I’m not for this conversation. I think you need to run for president if you’re going to be president, and I’m not running for president. So period, end of story.”
But Ryan’s denials are not curbing speculation, even as some Republican lawmakers have rallied around Cruz, a freshman senator who often acts antagonistically toward the Senate GOP leadership.
On MSNBC’s Morning Joe, host Joe Scarborough said Cruz remains so unpopular within the GOP establishment that Ryan is still more likely to become the nominee. And New York Magazine ran a story Monday under the banner headline, “Paul Ryan is Running for President.”
The story theorizes that Ryan will come to the rescue of convention Republicans the same way he did for the House GOP last year when Boehner stepped down and there was no party lawmaker who could win enough support to replace him.
For weeks, Ryan refused the speaker’s post but Boehner finally talked him into it.
When Ryan agreed to run for speaker, most House Republicans wanted him to take the job and many privately and publicly urged him to do it.
But primary voters who have selected one of the GOP presidential candidates may not be thrilled that someone who hasn’t even appeared on a ballot is suddenly the nominee, said Reed Galen, former deputy campaign manager for 2008 GOP presidential nominee John McCain.
“Delegates … are still likely to favor someone who has been through the campaign, won states and earned votes,” Galen told the Examiner. “The convention would likely have to descend into absolute chaos for someone such as Speaker Ryan to be put forth as the GOP standard bearer this fall.”
