The number of Republican presidential candidates on the main debate stage Thursday will be smaller, but the stakes will be higher.
Leading candidates are scheduled to meet in South Carolina and debate in prime time on the Fox Business Network. Less than three weeks before first votes, playing it safe and delivering a passable performance won’t cut it. Miscues like that could lead to an irreparable setback for the offending candidate. If previous debates have proven anything, it’s that GOP primary voters want to nominate a fighter, and Republicans who want to advance must show vigor and command.
That means different thing to different candidates. But at this late stage of the campaigns, as voters are finally paying close attention and beginning to make up their minds, punching above your weight is a prerequisite in a contest that has been heavily influenced by the previous five debates. “As they say in the movie ‘Top Gun’: ‘There are no points for second place,'” said Brett O’Donnell, a Republican consultant and debate coach.
Only seven candidates qualified for the prime time stage inside the North Charleston Coliseum and Performing Arts Center, just outside of Charleston, S.C. That truncated lineup should facilitate more camera time, interaction and drama between rivals as they attempt sway a GOP electorate in the early primary states that is still very much up for grabs. Iowa caucuses on Feb. 1; New Hampshire and South Carolina vote on Feb. 9 and Feb. 20, respectively.
Participants, in order of seeding, include New York celebrity businessman Donald Trump; Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas; Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida; retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson; New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie; former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida; and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Demoted to the undercard were businesswoman Carly Fiorina and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky. Paul has declined an invitation to the undercard, arguing his campaign is top tier and should be treated accordingly.
Former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and ex-Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, winners of the last two Iowa caucuses, will join Fiorina in the happy hour debate. To qualify for prime time, Fox Business Network required candidates to run sixth or higher in the average of recent national polls, or fifth or higher in recent Iowa and New Hampshire polls, conducted and released by Monday.
The less crowded prime time stage, O’Donnell said, benefits candidates who know the issues and can spar effectively with their opponents — and, if necessary, the debate moderators. “It will be harder to disappear from the debate as well, which may further expose Carson’s weaknesses,” he said. “Remember that in the last cycle, the most interesting exchanges occurred between [Newt] Gingrich and [Mitt] Romney after the field narrowed.”
Candidates stuck in the back of the pack could face the heaviest burden, although a shrunken field could equal more camera time and the attention they need to move up. In this category are Bush, Carson, Christie and Kasich. Christie has excelled in past debates, while poor performances have been responsible for stalling Bush and Kasich, and sinking Carson, a one-time top-tier candidate. Bush told Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker that he’s ready to brawl.
“Depending on how questions are framed, and despite his preference to focus on Clinton’s weaknesses, he’s loaded for bear when it comes to Trump’s presumed business acumen. If the question to Bush begins with something like You’ve said Trump isn’t a serious candidate, “I’m going to go after him,” said Bush. “The problem is there’s too much low-hanging fruit,” Parker wrote.
She continued: “Bush plans to highlight Trump’s multiple bankruptcies, his company’s massive layoffs, and people ‘getting stiffed,’ including a widow, Vera Coking, whose house Trump attempted to replace in the mid-1990s with a parking lot, invariably described as a ‘limousine parking lot,’ for one of his Atlantic City casinos, using eminent domain via New Jersey’s Casino Reinvestment Development Authority.”
Trump said Wednesday in an interview with CNN that he doesn’t plan to reprise his daily attacks on Cruz, suggesting that the senator is constitutionally ineligible to serve as president because he was born in Canada. Because Cruz’s mother is an American citizen born in Delaware, most legal scholars considered him to have satisfied the “natural-born” citizenship requirement.
Some Republican operatives believe Cruz must get tough with Trump during the debate. The two are neck-and-neck in Iowa, with Cruz slightly ahead. If Trump stays true to form and doesn’t repeat his campaign trail attacks on the debate stage, the Texan could revert to his preferred strategy of avoiding a fight with the billionaire real estate mogul. This week, Cruz counterpunched Trump for the first time after a consistent assault over his citizenship status.
Republican consultant Stuart Stevens, who helped guide Romney to the nomination four years ago, recommends against shying away from challenging Trump, even though it has appeared to work so well for Cruz. “If you aren’t attacking Trump you either agree with Trump or you are afraid of Trump. End of story,” he said.
The biggest spotlight could be on Rubio.
In the last debate, on Dec. 15 in Las Vegas, the senator faced more fire from his opponents than of the contenders on stage. Since then, Rubio has absorbed more attack ads on television than probably any other candidate. According to Federal Election Commission filings, Rubio has faced attacks from multiple opposition super PACs since Jan. 1. Christie is the only other candidate to come under the knife this year.
Rubio is running third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire and third in South Carolina, per the polling averages. But he is among the few Republicans competing in all four early states, including Nevada and is viewed as a threat that stands in the way of both candidates like Bush and Christie, and conservatives like Cruz. The Floridian is likely to face a gantlet of attacks again Thursday evening, and voters don’t award sympathy points.
To succeed in these potentially difficult circumstances, Rubio must appear in command and avoid looking defensive.
“Rubio needs to maintain his cool,” GOP strategist Jim Dornan said.
