Even some of the staunchest anti-establishment Tea Party Republicans in the House admit they don’t have a viable plan to unseat House Speaker John Boehner.
And despite an increase in Capitol Hill hallway chatter about a shake up, there are no talks about an attempt to remove the House GOP leadership, conservatives tell the Washington Examiner.
“I can tell you there is no plan by any group, that on a certain date there is going to be any move to do anything about leadership,” Rep. John Fleming, R-La., told the Examiner.
Conservatives are even dismissing an attempt earlier this summer by Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., to unseat Boehner. Instead, they said, it was merely as symbolic move to register discontent.
“He didn’t intend for it to actually go to a vote,” a conservative told the Examiner. “He just put it out there, and what he’s really saying is this is something we are going to be thinking about and contemplating over the coming months.”
The House GOP’s most conservative faction warned recently that Boehner, R-Ohio, could lose their support if he doesn’t move to defund Planned Parenthood in the upcoming government spending legislation. Conservatives said they would also be evaluating how the GOP handles other critical issues this fall, including the expired Export-Import Bank, the debt limit and government spending caps.
The warning led to speculation that Boehner’s gavel could be in jeopardy some time this fall.
Boehner’s ouster could happen if a member requests a vote to elect a new Speaker, which requires 218 votes. With dozens of disgruntled conservatives potentially ready to vote against Boehner, he might come up short of the votes needed to stay in power.
“I’m really waiting to see what happens this month,” Conservative Rep. Raul Labrador, R-Idaho said recently. “We have a lot of big issues before us.”
But conservatives admit they aren’t planning to call for such a vote and will likely leave Boehner alone, even if the spending legislation ends up including Planned Parenthood funding.
Rep. Matt Salmon, R-Ariz., said conservatives may be at the point where “the thin ice breaks” when it comes to Boehner’s waning support from the right, but he added, “I’m not pushing right now for anything on the leadership thing.”
House Republicans appear instead to be shifting their anger to the Senate and its majority leader, Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who has been unable to pass key GOP legislation send from the House. House Republicans are urging McConnell to change the filibuster rules in the Senate so that legislation can pass with 51 votes instead of 60.
Republicans blame the current filibuster rules for blocking House legislation, including a measure passed Friday that would block taxpayer funding of Planned Parenthood, an abortion provider that also offers health services for women.
Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Texas, sent a letter signed by 60 House Republicans to McConnell and Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., demanding a change in the Senate rules.
“Our request to eliminate the filibuster for some votes simply underscores that in a democracy the majority should decide,” Smith said. “The super-majority now required to advance legislation is 60 votes, which is not serving our country well.”
Boehner, meanwhile, is working to appease conservatives. He has stepped up efforts to address Planned Parenthood in the wake of undercover videos that show organization officials discussing the sale of fetal body parts. Three House committees have been holding hearings and he has held a series of votes on bills aimed at either blocking taxpayer dollars or protecting late-term fetuses.
“We are standing with the American people to stop these grisly practices from some of these abortion providers,” Boehner said after meeting with GOP lawmakers last week.
Boehner showed his rank-and-file polling numbers indicating that a government shutdown resulting from a move to defund Planned Parenthood would hurt the GOP.
Many say an October 2013 government shutdown that resulted from a fight to defund Obamacare was politically disastrous for the GOP. However, others note that by the time the 2014 election rolled around, Republicans still managed to pick up seats in the House and Senate, and say that’s a sign shutdowns don’t hurt and may even help the party. Still, GOP leaders seem to have concluded for now that a shutdown is the wrong move as the 2016 election approaches.
Boehner is also circulating statements from pro-life groups discouraging the GOP from using the federal spending legislation as a vehicle to strip funding from the organization.
“The message was there that this is a politically losing strategy to put our majority in peril,” said Rep. Tom Cole, a Boehner ally. “Most of these guys are practical politicians so they understand the numbers. Most members know that rerunning this failed exercise would not only be silly and stupid, but politically dangerous.”
For now, it appears the next real challenge to Boehner’s gavel may not come until the House reconvenes in January 2017. Assuming Republicans keep the majority and Boehner doesn’t retire, he’ll run for speaker again.
Conservatives say they might be more organized by then, and ready to unseat him if they are still unhappy with his leadership.
“That is probably the way this thing evolves,” a conservative told the Examiner. “Change takes time and things have to mature.”
