Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., was tied with Republican challenger Thom Tillis at 44 percent, according to a GOP poll shared with the Washington Examiner.
The survey of 600 likely voters, conducted Sept. 2-4 for the Tillis campaign, showed a race in which both candidates have vulnerable pressure points but are in contention as this seesaw midterm battle enters the home stretch.
President Obama’s approval in the Tarheel State was an anemic 41 percent, with 56 percent disapproving. The North Carolina legislature, where Tillis serves as speaker, was more mixed, with an approval-disapproval of 44 percent to 46 percent.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
“After being badly outspent this summer, Thom Tillis has moved into a tie on the ballot,” Tillis’ pollster, Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies, wrote in the memo outlining the survey results. Perhaps the most interesting portion of the memo was the demographic samples used by Bolger.
Republicans generally hold the voter turnout advantage in midterm elections and they are favored to gain congressional seats Nov. 4.
But Bolger’s memo on this poll revealed that he used a demographic sample that tracks closely with turnout in the 2012 presidential election, when President Obama narrowly lost North Carolina to GOP nominee Mitt Romney after narrowly winning the state in 2008.
Respondents in the Tillis poll were 72 percent white, 21 percent African-American and 7 percent “other minorities,” and 32 percent Republican and 41 percent Democrat. By comparison, in 2012 exit polls, voters were 70 percent white and 23 percent African-American and 33 percent Republican and 39 percent Democrat.
In the 2012 election cycle, many Republican campaigns were surprised on Election Day when Democratic congressional candidates performed better than GOP polls had suggested was likely. The Democrats gained two Senate seats, winning tough races in Republican-leaning states like North Dakota, where Obama was trounced by Romney.
The Tillis survey suggests a challenging environment for Hagan, even as she continues to do better than many predicted. Her biggest problem? According to this poll, it’s Obama.
“He’s even up to a 37 percent disapproval among white Democrats; that’s a problematic number among a group Hagan needs to run very well with. White women are disappointed by Obama, as they give him just a 35 percent-64 percent disapprove rating,” Bolger writes in the memo.
