Among the key snags in President Obama’s failed push to close the detention facility in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, is that Republicans believe the White House is downplaying the likelihood of prisoners joining terrorist groups after their release.
The White House and congressional Republicans have vastly different interpretations of recidivism rates of former Gitmo detainees, with conservatives insisting that many “return to the battlefield” and Obama calling those fears overblown.
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Here are the hard numbers as recently provided by the Obama administration: Nearly 18 percent of former Guantanamo inmates have been confirmed of re-engaging in terrorism. Another 11 percent are suspected of returning to terrorist activity.
Those figures are the source of the Republican claim that nearly one in three detainees transferred from the Cuba facility has ties to terrorist cells. The White House is quick to counter that just six of the 115 detainees released since Obama took office have been confirmed of re-engaging in terrorism, a lower rate than during President George W. Bush’s tenure.
As Obama attempts to empty the prison before the end of his second term, with his administration expediting transfers, much to the chagrin of Republicans, he is arguing that keeping Gitmo open emboldens terrorists and is far more detrimental to U.S. national security than moving detainees to other countries.
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Yet, experts say both camps in the dispute are misrepresenting the statistics.
“I fear that the recidivism data is being used the same way drunks use lampposts — for support, rather than illumination,” said Stephen Vladeck, a law professor and expert in national security at American University.
“Given how many of the detainees were either adjudicated to be not detainable or released for similar reasons, it’s not at all obvious to me that each of the detainees can even engage in ‘recidivism,’ even if we could agree on what conduct ‘counts,’ ” he said. “Absent some consensus on both of these points, debates over recidivism are shooting at moving targets.”
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Republicans would counter that Obama’s attempts to downplay recidivism rates are a brazen political attempt to fulfill his unmet pledge to shutter the prison.
They point to the exchange of five Taliban members for Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, recently charged with desertion, as proof of how detached Obama is on the issue. One of those prisoners was at least suspected of attempting to engage in militant activity, according to multiple media reports.
Obama’s Office of the Director of National Intelligence puts the issue in less rosy terms than the president.
“Based on trends identified during the past 11 years, we assess that some detainees currently at [Guantanamo] will seek to re-engage in terrorist or insurgent activities after they are transferred,” the agency said. “Transfers to countries with ongoing conflicts and internal instability as well as active recruitment by insurgent and terrorist organizations pose particular problems.”
The entire 2016 Republican presidential field is likely to make Obama’s handling of Guantanamo a centerpiece of their argument that he is failing to adequately protect the homeland. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., said after announcing his presidential intentions that Obama should expand the Gitmo population, not reduce it.
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And congressional Republicans are attempting to move legislation through both chambers that would halt foreign aid to countries unable to keep former Gitmo detainees from engaging in terrorist activity.
At a minimum, conservatives say they need a better understanding of how the administration makes transfer decisions.
“We cannot continue to supply the enemy with reinforcements,” argued Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who is exploring a run for president. “As we watch the confirmed re-engagement numbers rise, it is time Congress starts scrutinizing exactly who we are releasing from Guantanamo back to the battlefield, whether subject to a court order or otherwise. At the very least, we need to understand the legal justification behind these court orders, and what harm they caused.”
