Phones are starting to ring in certain Republican lawmakers’ offices.
The calls are coming from contenders, real or imagined, for the party’s presidential nomination.
For, while Congress as a whole is deeply unpopular — just 21 percent of voters approving of it, according to the latest Fox News poll — some of its members are suddenly very popular indeed among ambitious colleagues who want their endorsement.
Some are wanted for their strategic insights. Others are thought to hold the key to winning the support of local grassroots activists. Still others are sufficiently admired to lend credibility and thus attract wider public support.
Mitt Romney showed in 2012 what could be done with well-timed announcements that lawmaker A, B or C had given his endorsement. Romney, who went on to win the nomination, announced the support of Sen. John Thune, for example, just as the Iowa caucuses campaign was heating up. He hoped he could parlay the South Dakota Republican’s conservative credentials and Midwestern appeal into victory. It came very close to working. And at around the same time, Romney was able to announce that he had the support of New Hampshire’s Sen. Kelly Ayotte, which gave new oomph to his campaign in that important primary state.
Thune talked to the Washington Examiner this week about what Sen. Tim Scott is almost certainly going to deal with. As as a black Republican from the vital early primary state of South Carolina, he will have every White House hopeful beating a path to his door, imploring him for an endorsement. “He’s going to be highly sought after,” said Thune, who opted against running for president in 2012. “It will be a firestorm coming at him.”
Scott could be the biggest prize in South Carolina, according to Palmetto State GOP insiders. He didn’t endorse anyone in 2012 but in an interview this week he indicated that he will do so this time around.
Thune’s endorsement could again be a big get again in this election cycle. The South Dakotan shines on the campaign trail and he is popular with conservatives and with the GOP establishment.
Here are other Republican members who probably fielding calls already from potential candidates:
• Rep. Trey Gowdy, South Carolina. He is partnering with Scott to hold town hall meetings with presidential candidates in his state. Gowdy has achieved national popularity among conservatives for throwing sharp elbows at the administration, and for his chairmanship of the House select committee investigating the fatal terrorist attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi on Sept. 11, 2012.
• Sen. Lindsey Graham, South Carolina. He is less popular than Scott but could offer access to important GOP establishment players and donors in the Palmetto State. Graham is considering a White House bid of his own, which is viewed as a way to up his stock as a South Carolina kingmaker.
• Sen. Joni Ernst, Iowa. Ernst won an open, Democratic-held Senate seat in 2014 and was picked to deliver the GOP response to last month’s State of the Union address. A rising star in conservative circles with a great overall profile, she could deliver an endorsement that would make a splash. Notably, only one member of Congress endorsed Ernst in her competitive Senate primary last year, and that was Sen. Marco Rubio. The Floridian is a clear contender for the presidential nomination and is visiting Iowa this weekend to explore his chances.
• Sen. Tom Cotton, Arkansas. Popular in conservative circles and with the talk radio crowd, Cotton could give a presidential candidate a conservative seal of approval on fiscal and national security issues. And whose political action committee helped Cotton in his 2014 Senate race? Rubio’s.
• Sen. Cory Gardner, Colorado. Gardner hails from a swing state and crucial presidential battleground. He’s a young, vibrant campaigner and his sunny energy would invigorate any presidential operation. What is unknown is whether he wants, so early in his Senate career, to make an endorsement in a crowded primary field.
A Republican operative said endorsing in a competitive presidential primary is a gamble that might not be worth taking for members of Congress who haven’t been on the scene long, or for those running for re-election in 2016 and who have to worry about their own political hide.
“I don’t think anyone will really want to jump in with an endorsement,” this GOP insider said. “I don’t see the upside. So many people are running that it’s going to be hard to pick the winner. Plus the activists back home have very strong feelings about who they like. No matter who you pick, you’ll be going against most of them.”
Other members whose backing could be helpful include:
• Sen. Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire: Her endorsement was considered a big get in 2012 even though Romney was something of a favorite son in New Hampshire himself. Ayotte has strong national security credentials and has been talked about as a possible vice-presidential pick. But she may be more reluctant to give any endorsement this time around because she faces a tough bid for re-election, possibly from Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan.
• Rep. Paul Ryan, Wisconsin. The House Ways and Means Committee chairman and 2012 vice presidential nominee is leading the Republican National Committee’s 2016 fundraising effort and is supposed to remain neutral. In any event, with Romney out of the race, Ryan would probably feel compelled to support his governor, Scott Walker, who is preparing to run.
• Sen. Rob Portman, Ohio. Portman is a fundraising machine. He has access to Cincinnati’s flush GOP donor community and can open wallets around the country, as he did for his party’s Senate campaign committee during the 2014 midterm campaign. But Portman is up for re-election in a battleground state, which will make it less attractive to him to get involved in presidential machinations. On top of that, although Portman has close ties to the Bush family, he is unlikely to throw his support to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush while Ohio Gov. John Kasich keeps alive the possibility of a White House bid.
• Sen. John McCain, Arizona. The party’s presidential nominee in 2008, McCain isn’t the most popular guy in a room full of Tea Party activists. But they still love McCain in New Hampshire, and the senator knows how to work the town hall circuit there. McCain defeated Romney in the Granite State in the 2008 primary. And, independents can vote in New Hampshire’s Republican presidential primary.
• Sen. Roy Blunt, Missouri. Blunt is a well-connected operator who served as Romney’s whip for congressional endorsements in 2012. But he is up for re-election in 2016, and there’s no sense in annoying conservative Republican primary voters at home who are supporting the various candidates. Look for Blunt to keep his powder dry.
Others whose endorsement could hold value: Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa, who remained neutral in 2012 and is up for re-election next year; Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, who is very close with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, and that is likely where his endorsement is going; and Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska, who was a conservative favorite during the 2014 GOP primary season.
