Less than one-third of Virginia’s registered voters will go to the polls next month despite record spending by General Assembly candidates, political observers told The Examiner.
Legislative candidates competing for votes in the Nov. 6 election combined to raise approximately $50 million through September, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. The total is almost double what they brought in during the entire 2002-2003 election cycle, which was the last time all 100 House seats and 40 Senate seats were on the ballot.
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“From the amount of donations, it is clear a lot of people out there care about these races,” said Sean O’Brien, director of the
Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership. “The question is whether those dollars can turn more voters out.”
O’Brien and Steven Farnsworth, a University of Mary Washington political scientist, doubt candidates’ lavish spending will get significantly more voters to the polls than the 30.8 percent that showed up in 2003. O’Brien said a statewide turnout in the 20-percent range would be reasonable, but still is “embarrassingly low.” Farnsworth said it would take a “full-court press” for turnout to top 30 percent without a marquee race, such as president or governor, atop the ballot.
“What you have here is an off-off-year election,” Farnsworth said. “By spreading elections across every single year, you are guaranteeing a low turnout for legislative elections.”
Candidates in hotly contested districts are preparing large get-out-the-vote efforts that include mailings as Election Day nears and phone calls to district residents that will continue until the polls close.
“The key to winning is knowing who your supporters are and making sure they get to the polls,” Farnsworth said.
Turnout could approach the 40- to 50-percent level in certain areas, such as the race for the 34th House district in McLean, where Republican Dave Hunt is trying to beat Margaret Vanderhye and prevent Democrats from controlling every House seat inside the Beltway.
“It’s an open race where both candidates are well-known in the community and have raised a lot of money,” O’Brien.
