You don’t hear much about luck in national politics these days. But nothing played a more critical role in Joe Biden’s capture of the Democratic presidential nomination than just that: old-fashioned, mostly forgotten luck.
Recall the three things that were supposed to be Biden’s strengths in the Democratic race. First were polls that showed he had the best chance of beating President Trump. Then there were his eight glory years as Barack Obama’s vice president. And as an offshoot of the Obama connection, Biden’s appeal to African American voters would grow.
But these Biden issues failed to boost him in the first two contests, the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. They’re regarded as the critical states, the ones that produce presidents. A likely nominee is required to win at least one, and winning both probably leads to winning a presidential nomination.
Biden came in fifth in Iowa and fourth in New Hampshire. His performance was humiliating, causing his candidacy to be all but dismissed. But in Biden’s case, it got worse. He was clobbered in the Nevada primary. He looked defeated in his third bid for the presidency.
This is when luck stepped in. At this point, Democratic Party officials, influential leaders, strategists, and donors were glum. They feared socialist Bernie Sanders was on the verge of locking up the nomination. But that was his ceiling. Driving Trump out of the White House was a bigger task than Sanders could handle.
The next primary, as luck would have it, was on Saturday, Feb. 29, in South Carolina. In fact, this was an enormous piece of luck. The state, the date, the fact that 14 primaries would come three days after South Carolina’s were one big, lucky package.
The black community is a significant voting bloc in South Carolina’s Democratic primary. So Biden wouldn’t be blown out of the water, given his popularity among black people. But slowing down the Sanders juggernaut would still be difficult.
Alas, another group of voters the media had ignored emerged from obscurity. These were white Democrats. They were critical to a Biden victory to slow down the Sanders juggernaut.
Biden knew both factions well. He had developed strong interracial ties in the state when he was a senator, according to Daron Shaw, Department of Government professor at the University of Texas in Austin. He visited South Carolina often and took vacations.
In 2019, Biden gave the eulogy at the funeral in Charleston of Democratic Sen. Fritz Hollings. After the service, he was asked if he planned to run for president. “I’ll consult with Fritz,” he answered. That was Biden’s clever way of not answering.
He has never been bashful about his friendship with conservative Southerners on Capitol Hill, even the segregationists. He spoke warmly of Jesse Helms at the funeral of another South Carolina senator, Republican Strom Thurmond.
His friendships paid off. In the South Carolina primary, he topped Sanders, 48.4% to 19.9%. Three days later, with Democrats inspired by the South Carolina breakthrough, Biden won 10 of 14 primaries. The nomination fight was over. Biden had won.
But what if the vote in South Carolina had come on a different day, maybe later in the race and thus not closely followed by a “Super Tuesday” of 14 primaries? We’ll never know. The odds against Biden’s sitting pretty as the Democratic nominee today are very great.
A saying about such episodes as Biden’s holds that “it’s better to be lucky than good.” It’s hard to argue with that. Maybe others have won a presidential election or a lesser race due to luck. But admit it? Don’t hold your breath for that.
While the effect of COVID-19 is not a matter of luck, one can benefit from the steps taken to control it. Quarantines and shutdowns have slowed the pace of life. This has allowed Biden to run for president from his basement and at a far slower pace than if the coronavirus were nonexistent.
If that were the case, Biden would be criticized or made fun of. But with so many people stuck at home, a basement-bound campaign seems ordinary or at least defensible. He’s given no indication he’d rather be a candidate with multiple events a day in the outside world. Sticking to the basement is easier on his body and mind. Lucky for Biden.
