As attention turned to Sen. Lindsey Graham and what impact his endorsement might have on the race for the Republican presidential nomination, Sen. Tim Scott remained the real prize in South Carolina.
Graham was never a threat to win his party’s 2016 nomination, but his exit from the race on Monday wasn’t insignificant. The veteran lawmaker was tying up several experienced GOP political operatives and connected campaign donors in the Palmetto State, host of the third nominating contest on the primary calendar and first in the South. They were sticking with Graham during his long-shot bid, out of personal loyalty and home-state deference.
They’re now available and expected to jump on board with other candidates, just as the campaign is getting serious. A nod from Graham could give any of the remaining candidates a leg up in the competition to secure his old supporters, and those who do could gain a competitive advantage heading into the Feb. 23 primary. The Washington Post’s Dave Weigel made this last point on Twitter soon after Graham suspended his campaign.
But all along, Scott has been the bigger catch in South Carolina for any aspiring Republican presidential nominee. This year, Scott hosted town hall meetings in South Carolina for about a dozen Republican contenders. The events focused on the issue of school choice, and were held throughout the state as a part of the senator’s process for determining whom to endorse. His decision could be just weeks away, a spokesman told the Washington Examiner.
“With the ‘Tim’s Town Hall’ series wrapping up earlier this month after a dozen events, the Senator is currently looking forward to the Kemp Presidential Forum he is moderating with Speaker [Paul] Ryan [R-Wis.] in Columbia on Jan. 9,” Scott spokesman Sean Smith said Monday in an email. “If he decides to endorse, which he hopes to do, it will come sometime after the Kemp Forum and before the South Carolina primary.”
In 2013, Scott, 50, was a congressman from Charleston when Gov. Nikki Haley appointed him to the Senate. He succeeded Jim DeMint, who resigned mid-term to become president of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington. The next year, Scott was elected to serve out the remaining two years of the six-year term DeMint won in 2010; next year he is running for his first full term as senator. He’s favored to win easily.
The likeable, charismatic African-American lawmaker is broadly popular in South Carolina, with strong connections to the business and political establishment wings of the GOP, as well as the Tea Party and social conservative factions. In that sense, Scott is the true heir apparent to DeMint, who despite his national reputation as a Tea Party agitator was the consummate South Carolina insider, closely aligned, and respected by, a broad cross-section of the party and conservative voters.
So, an endorsement by Scott could be a major boon, particularly in the hunt for grassroots support.
“Tim is the ‘difference maker’ in 2016 in South Carolina — the most popular GOP politician in the state, hands down,” said Luke Byars, a Republican consultant in Columbia, the state capital. “When and if he makes an endorsement it will be a big deal, not just here but all over.”
Byars is advising the super PAC supporting Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s presidential bid.
The Palmetto State is more politically complicated than it is given credit for.
It’s a reliably conservative red state, to be sure. But South Carolina is split among mainstream Republicans along the coast and socially conservative voters in the “Upstate.” Central South Carolina, known as the “Midlands,” comprises a mixture of the two. National security and pocketbook issues are as important to Republicans there as anywhere. Donald Trump currently leads the GOP field in South Carolina, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
In the past three decades, the winner of the South Carolina primary has proceeded to win the GOP nomination in every election but the last one. Graham’s departure from the primary could reverberate — not necessarily through the personal endorsement of a former competitor, but because of his leaving the campaign frees up several local political professionals who were backing him, or keeping their power dry to maintain good relations.
Among this group are dozens of veteran political operatives and campaign financiers. They are adept at helping candidates assemble coalitions that can win the GOP primary in South Carolina, and capable of bundling hundreds of thousands of dollars, each, for those they back. There phones were no doubt ringing off the hook Monday as Republicans looking ahead to the February primary sought to pick up their support.
“Graham’s exit allows other candidates to recruit some South Carolina bundlers to their campaign,” said a Republican operative in the state who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. “The biggest fish is former ambassador to Canada David Wilkins. Ambassador Wilkins raised a few million for President Bush in 2004. He gets engaged, he can raise boatloads of hard dollars very quickly.”
Other top operatives to watch with Graham out include Terry Brown; Dr. Eddie Floyd; Smyth McKissick; Ambassador Bob Royall, Bill Stern, Joe Taylor and Anita Zucker.
