Most voters are likely to agree with the open letter to Iran’s mullahs signed by 47 Republican senators.
Critics blast it as a political stunt, or worse, but it aligns its signers with a popular majority skeptical of President Obama’s nuke talks with Tehran.
Newspaper editorials rebuke its author, Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark, and diplomatic professionals deride it as dangerously undermining foreign policy and national security. Even some Republicans worry that it takes opposition to Obama a step too far.
But the letter should bolster Republicans’ standing with voters.
“The Republicans aren’t going to take some particular hit from this,” said Floyd Ciruli, an independent pollster at Denver University’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies. “There’s a trend moving in their direction, and away from the president, on his policy of restraint. They’re sort of articulating where the public seems to be.”
The administration is in the final stages of negotiations to limit Iran’s nuclear weapons capability. Democratic and Republican lawmakers, and allies Israel and Gulf Arab states support the goal but are skeptical of the details, which amount to a non-binding agreement that, even if adhered to, would provide immediate sanctions relief but stop Tehran getting the bomb for only 10 years and do nothing about Iran’s support for terrorism.
Cotton’s letter, essentially a press release, pointed out that under the U.S. Constitution, diplomatic agreements require congressional approval if they are to be binding. The letter warned that in 2017 the next president could unilaterally cancel Obama’s deal. Several GOP presidential contenders signed the letter.
Democrats condemn the letter and circulate editorials blasting Republicans. A HuffPost/YouGov online poll this week found that 42 percent of the public deem it “inappropriate.” But more reliable data from phone surveys show Republicans in good shape. The recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed Obama with a 36 percent approval rating on foreign policy; 71 percent said his deal wouldn’t prevent Iran getting nuclear weapons.
“The only blowback is that being manufactured by the White House, Hill Democrats and their allies in the media,” Republican pollster Brock McCleary said.
Republican political consultants agree. They liken the criticism of the letter to that which faced the GOP in early debate over what became Obamacare. Through much of 2009, news media and others in Washington said opposition to Obamacare would prove indefensible. But it turned out that Republicans were simpatico with most voters.
Republican operatives say the GOP has to be careful not to cross the line between exercising their constitutional authority and diminishing the presidency. But those outside Washington said erring on the side of standing up for Israel and opposing “lunatic” mullahs in Iran is a good place to be, politically.
So it’s not surprising that 47 out of 54 Republican senators signed the letter and are standing by their actions. Swing state senators Cory Gardner of Colorado, Dean Heller of Nevada, and Rob Portman of Ohio, say constituents are not complaining. Gardner said callers to his office are mostly positive. Heller and Portman say feedback has been mixed.
Portman, running for re-election in 2016, has no regrets. “It’s the right thing to do,” he said flatly. “People don’t trust Iran for good reasons. They have not been trustworthy and so we have to have a verifiable agreement and so I think this letter makes it more likely we get a better agreement.”
Squabbling over the letter has overshadowed bipartisan concern about Obama’s expected deal. Some Republicans worry that it could undermine efforts to compile a veto-proof majority for legislation forcing the president to seek congressional approval for any agreement. There is no evidence yet of lasting damage.
Democrats say that with voters frustrated by Washington’s dysfunction, Republican moves that seem to interfere with negotiations could backfire.
“Voters ascribe political motivations to basically anything that happens in Washington. This letter will be no exception,” Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. “It’s government dysfunction, not foreign policy, that continues to top voters’ list as the country’s biggest problem.”
