Chuck Schumer has the inside track to succeed Harry Reid as Senate Democratic leader in 2017, but party insiders caution that progressive activists could agitate for a fresh alternative, possibly Elizabeth Warren.
Reid’s exit after more than a decade as the top Democrat in the Senate could have broad implications for the future of the party’s leadership on Capitol Hill. Nevada’s senior senator announced Friday morning that he would not seek re-election next year. That leaves Schumer, of New York, as the frontrunner to replace him, over Reid’s deputy, Minority Whip Dick Durbin of Illinois, former Senate Democratic aides confirmed in conversations with the Washington Examiner.
“It’s Schumer, no question about it,” one former aide said.
Here is what to watch for as Senate Democrats ponder a future without the pugnacious Reid and prepare for their first major leadership change since November of 2004, when then-Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota was ousted by now-Republican Sen. John Thune.
• Schumer: The New Yorker served as chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in 2006 and 2008, helping Democrats win a combined 14 seats. Even after Republicans won nine seats and reclaimed control of the Senate in 2014, Schumer retains much loyalty. That gives him a leg up over Durbin. Schumer has functioned as the go-to political adviser for Senate Democrats in recent years, and is viewed as a potential deal-maker with Republicans despite his tough partisan edges.
• Liberals: Durbin is viewed as the only potential challenger to Schumer in a caucus election not expected to occur until just after the 2016 elections. Reid should remain in his leadership post until he retires. But that could change if liberal activists make enough noise and encourage a newer progressive into challenging Schumer. Warren, of Massachusetts, is seen as the kind of Democratic senator that liberals from outside of Washington might encourage to get in the race.
• Unity: Reid has enjoyed an extraordinary amount of loyalty and ran a very disciplined, unified ship. His retirement announcement could spur Democratic senators to begin acting independently of leadership, possibly leading to them crossing the aisle to vote with Republicans on major legislation or simply defying leadership’s agenda. That could temporarily alter the character of what has been a very partisan Senate or at least alter how Democrats handle their status as the minority party.
“It’ll be interesting to see if senators start making more independent moves,” a Democratic operative said.
