When it comes to the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, there is former President Donald Trump, and then there is everyone else.
A recent Morning Consult poll found Trump leading 48% to former Vice President Mike Pence’s 13% among GOP voters. They were the only prospective Republican candidates in the double digits. The majority of the field failed to crack 5% of the vote.
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After a failed reelection bid, a prolonged challenge to the results that has continued with at least one audit in a battleground state over 100 days into Joe Biden’s presidency, the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, and two impeachments, Trump finds himself in the same position as when he took his trip down the escalator in June 2015: larger than the array of candidates who could oppose him. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump was averaging 46.1% in the national polls the day he clinched the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
Trump has not said for certain that he will run, only that he is considering it. His potential legal problems are a wild card. Even if he does not, the uncertainty could keep prospective candidates on the sidelines — former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley has already said she will not run if her ex-boss does — and lesser-known candidates from establishing the national profile they need to be viable contenders themselves.
Nor is this uncertainty likely to end anytime soon. “I am not yet convinced that Donald Trump really does want to run again in 2024,” plugged-in conservative commentator Erick Erickson said on his radio show. “I am convinced he can’t let anyone know he’s not inclined to because he needs that 2022 clout. The moment he says he’s not running is the moment the Republican Party starts looking for a replacement.” The former president also wants to be active in the 2022 GOP primaries, especially to punish lawmakers who voted to impeach him.
For other possible candidates, it is early. There is not much precedent to asterisk candidates going on to win the nomination even three years later, however. The big exception is Trump, who was polling as low as 1% in some national surveys in 2015. But much of that appears to have reflected uncertainty he would run after teasing past presidential bids. Once it became clear Trump was in, he quickly rocketed to the top of a 16-candidate field.
In the Morning Consult poll, Haley and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz are at just 4%, the same as Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, and three points behind Donald Trump Jr. Sen. Tim Scott is at 2%. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, considered up-and-coming Republicans, are each polling at 1%, the same as recently booted House Republican Conference Chairwoman Liz Cheney, a Trump nemesis.
Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, a top populist prospect if Trump doesn’t run, received 0%, the same as anti-Trump Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Florida Sen. Rick Scott, the current chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis took 8%, good for a distant third place behind Pence.
“Trump is definitely sucking up all the oxygen,” said Republican strategist John Feehery. “There is no natural heir to the Republican throne, mostly because the party has gone through such a huge and quick transformation.”
A March poll by the Republican firm Echelon Insights that did not list Trump as an option found DeSantis was the top choice with 17%, followed closely behind by Pence at 16%. The former vice president, who angered Trump by presiding over the certification of their ticket’s defeat, has said he will try to synthesize Trump-style populism with old-line movement conservatism in the run-up to 2024, while DeSantis has tried to govern on a number of Trump’s big issues.
A May Trafalgar Group poll gave DeSantis an even bigger lead with 35% of the vote. Cruz was in second place with 15.3%, followed by Romney, the 2012 nominee, at 10.3%, and Pence at 10%. Haley, Noem, Hawley, and Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse failed to reach the double digits.
“I still think Ron DeSantis is the one to look for because the base is so angry at the government lockdowns from last year, and DeSantis is the one who stood up the strongest for freedom,” Feehery said. “Stronger than Trump even.”
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Some have suggested Trump’s failure to break 50% in the national polls could be a sign of weakness. But if he decided to run, the field would likely need to consolidate against him — something that failed to happen in 2016. Trafalgar also found 49.1% of likely GOP voters would back Trump again for the 2024 nomination.
“I actually have never put much stock in national polls for an election that is disproportionately decided in six or so early states, and I definitely don’t put stock in those numbers three years out,” said Republican consultant Brad Todd. “If they mattered, Presidents Giuliani and Sanders would have already completed two terms!”
