Marco Rubio pivoted to do-or-die Florida on Tuesday after yet another round of defeats in his underdog bid to wrest control of the Republican presidential crown from clear front-runner Donald Trump.
Florida votes March 15 and will award all 99 GOP nominating delegates to the winner, providing home-state Sen. Rubio with one last-ditch chance to alter the trajectory of the 2016 primary and halt the New York celebrity businessman’s march to Cleveland. Trump scored more victories in the Super Tuesday primaries held in New England and across the South, putting him in a commanding lead for the 1,237 delegates required to secure the nomination.
Rubio on Tuesday evening rallied supporters in Miami, the beginning of a furious two-week campaign to upset Trump, who leads in most Florida polls. Rubio also must contend with Sen. Ted Cruz, who beat Trump Tuesday in Oklahoma and his home state of Texas. The Rubio campaign isn’t downplaying how significant the Sunshine State primary is to the senator’s presidential prospects. “We view it as must-win, and a will-win,” spokesman Alex Burgos told the Washington Examiner.
“We know our state,” Rubio added, according to a transcript of an interview with reporters that are traveling with his campaign and was released by his team. “I know the state, I know how to win campaigns in Florida, we’re gonna do well, we’re gonna win Florida, that I’m confident of. But that won’t be enough, we’ve got to keep winning after that as well, and we will.”
Rubio performed admirably on Tuesday, winning Minnesota and threatening victory in Virginia before falling to Trump in a five-candidate field. The senator also was positioned to win delegates by finishing second or third in other states, enough to fuel his campaign through Florida. But he still fails Cruz in overall victories. To get a sense of Rubio’s precarious position, his campaign discusses winning his home state as a building block toward pushing the nomination fight to the Republican convention in Cleveland in July.
Under this scenario, none of the candidates wins enough delegates in the primary season to secure the nomination, putting the outcome in the hands of convention delegates, who are free to vote for the candidate of their choice, on the convention floor, after the first or second ballot. To win Florida and even get to this point, Rubio has to fight through a field of candidates that doesn’t appear to be shrinking any further.
Cruz, who has at least recorded two victories over Trump, continues to argue that Rubio should drop out so that the anti-Trump vote can consolidate behind him. Ohio Gov. John Kasich argues the same, despite having performed far more poorly than Rubio since the voting began last month. And, retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson appears intent on sticking around, despite conceding that he has no strategy for winning the nomination.
Cruz, who like Rubio is of Cuban descent, isn’t standing down in the Sunshine State. At least one of his super political action committees, Keep the Promise II, is sitting on around $9 million that it says it has been saving to spend on Cruz’s behalf in winner-take-all delegate states like Florida. A Republican operative who supports Rubio conceded that Cruz could be a problem for the Floridian at home; evidence of that surfaced on Tuesday.
To be sure, Bush’s exit is boosting Rubio. Most of Bush’s supporters, including grassroots and key fundraisers, are now supporting Rubio. They were likely competing for the same voters in the state, so at least one significant obstacle has been cleared from Rubio’s path. But the Tampa Bay Times’ Adam C. Smith is reporting that a cadre of conservative activists who previously supported Rubio is throwing in with Cruz. “He is the only candidate we can trust to keep his promises,” this group of pro-Cruz activists said in joint statement.
That puts Rubio in a pickle. He trails Trump in Florida by anywhere from the mid single digits to nearly 20 points. Complicating matters, absentee balloting has been underway for two weeks, prior to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush exiting the race (early voting began Monday.) It also predates Rubio’s winning debate performance in Houston on Feb. 25 and his shift in campaign messaging to an aggressive targeting of Trump — and the coverage and enthusiasm it generated.
The Rubio campaign is buoyed by the senator’s stronger than expected finish in some Super Tuesday states — at least compared to the public opinion polling that preceded the voting in those contests.
Rubio has issued a campaign schedule that in coming days will take him to Michigan, Kentucky, Kansas and Louisiana. But his campaign is focused above all on winning Florida. Rubio has campaign offices up and running in Jacksonville, Orlando, the Tampa area, Boca Raton and Miami, and more are on the way. The campaign has been engaged in get-out-the-vote activities for several weeks.
There are some natural strongholds for Rubio, beginning with southern Florida, where he hails from and home to the strong contingent of Cuban American Republicans. But Republican operatives say the senator has push hard everywhere to maximize his numbers. That includes northern Florida, along the Interstate 10 corridor, and in Orlando and Tampa and along the I-4 corridor connecting them. Portions of western Florida, along the Gulf coast, could also be fruitful.
“There is no place he can back off,” said a Republican strategist with Florida ties.
Rubio is receiving key support in Florida from the super PAC supporting his candidacy, Conservative Solutions PAC, and Our Principles PAC, an anti-Trump super PAC that plans to spend “significantly,” according to a spokeman, to defeat the reality television star in the Sunshine State.
