Donald Trump isn’t as popular as he’s cracked up to be in Iowa, and that could have significant implications for his presidential prospects.
At least that’s the conclusion of a new poll obtained by the Washington Examiner. By every measure, the New York billionaire businessman and reality television star still leads the field in the competition for Iowa caucus goers. But a survey conducted this week for the super PAC supporting Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal’s candidacy found that retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, currently running second in the horse race, is the most liked; Trump runs eighth.
Carson sports an 86 percent favorable rating, with only 8 percent holding an unfavorable opinion of him. Following close behind is former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, viewed positively by 80 percent, as opposed to 12 who have an unfavorable opinion of her; and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who commands a 78 percent favorable/12 percent unfavorable rating. Jindal runs fourth in the likability sweepstakes, with a 73 percent/13 percent favorable number.
Rounding out the eight 2016 candidates, whose favorable ratings were published in a polling memo that Believe Again provided to super PAC donors on Thursday, were former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (64 percent favorable/28 percent unfavorable); Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas (62 percent/26 percent); former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (53 percent/40 percent) and Trump (50 percent/46 percent). Favorable ratings could be more consequential than horse race numbers given the crowded and volatile nature of this race.
“Someone who doesn’t like you isn’t likely to vote for you given other choices,” said Stuart Stevens, a Republican strategist and senior advisor to 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney in the last campaign. “It’s rare in a primary with multiple candidates for anyone to over perform their favorables. So favorability tends to be a ceiling.”
Trump continues to lead in the RealClearPolitics.com average of Iowa polls, with 26.7 percent, followed by Carson at 21 percent, Cruz at 9 percent, Fiorina at 7.3 percent and Rubio at 6.3 percent. Jindal trails the pack way back at No. 11, with 2.7 percent. Trumps also rates No. 1 in the Examiner’s presidential power rankings, followed by Fiorina, Carson and Rubio; Jindal ranks eighth and has climbed recently as his support in Iowa has increased.
Jim McLaughlin & Associates surveyed 600 likely Republican Iowa caucus goers Sunday through Tuesday. Live interviews were conducted via telephone, with 15 percent of calls made to cell phones. The poll has an error margin of 4 percentage points. The Iowa caucuses, set for Feb. 1, kick off the nominating season. Caucuses attract more committed — and therefore fewer — voters than a regular primary election, and can be hard to poll given the difficulty in determining likely attendees.
Additionally, Iowa caucus goers have a history of breaking late and coalescing behind underdogs. It happened in 2008, when Huckabee on the Republican side and then-Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois on the Democratic side came from behind to win. It happened again for the GOP in 2012, as former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum ended up winning after appearing as an asterisk in most polls until a few weeks before the caucus vote.
The 2016 fight appears equally unsettled.
According to survey data compiled for Believe Again, only 25 percent of likely Republican caucus goers have “definitely decided” on a candidate. Of the rest, 43 percent are “still trying to decide” and 28 percent are “leaning towards someone.” That’s good news for the underdogs and other contenders trailing in the horse race, particularly those with high favorable numbers. It also should give those on the leader board pause.
“Furthermore,” pollsters Jim McLaughlin and Rob Schmidt said in the memo, “when we recently conducted a series of focus groups in Iowa of likely caucus attendees, only one participant out of 32 completely had his mind made in his choice for president.”
A veteran Iowa political operative who is supporting one of Jindal’s competitors said this data fits the historical norm. That’s why all this obsession over these nutty national polls is so ridiculous,” this Republican insider said. “The race always breaks late.”
Jindal, 44, is waging an uphill battle for the Republican nomination, and is betting all of his chips on Iowa. The second term governor hopes an upset caucus victory springboards him into contention for the 2016 crown. Despite his low standing in the polling averages, he has begun to show some signs of life in the Hawkeye State, and has an aggressive slate of campaign events planned between now and Caucus Day.
The polling memo for his super PAC did not reveal horse race numbers, but instead focused on the volatility of the race, candidate favorability and Jindal’s strengths.
The survey revealed that 57 percent of respondents said they would consider supporting Jindal for his party’s nomination, while 39 percent would not. Eleven percent said they have met Jindal or attended one of his campaign events, and among them his favorability rating was 85 percent, with 81 percent of this subgroup saying they would consider voting for him, with nearly a fifth saying they would not.
In focus groups, positive feedback about Jindal included:
- “He’s a fighter.”
- “The hyphenated Americans message really struck a cord with me.”
- “He’s the smartest man in the field.”
Federal law forbids super PACs and campaigns from coordinating. Jindal’s strategy of late has involved a heavy focus on attempting to discredit Trump as an unserious candidate. Trump has generally ignored the attacks.
