Dueling poll numbers show a big shift toward Barack Obama in California but presumptive Republican nominee John McCain leading Obama in two of three key swing states.
Hillary Clinton’s top campaign aides are using data released Thursday by Quinnipiac University showing McCain ahead of Obama in Florida and Ohio to bolster their argument that they can still convince superdelegates that she should be the nominee. According to the poll, she leads McCain inthose two states and has a greater advantage over McCain in Pennsylvania than Obama.
Obama’s campaign touted a California poll showing Obama leading McCain 54 percent to 37 percent.
Clinton aides, meanwhile, insisted despite daunting delegate math they still have a route to the top of the ticket by getting every Michigan and Florida delegate seated and making the case to the remaining superdelegates that the general election electoral map favors Clinton.
Howard Wolfson and Harold Ickes, senior Clinton aides, said Thursday the campaign no longer favors giving Obama 40 percent of the delegates from Florida, where he removed his name from the ballot in protest of the state’s early primary. Clinton won 56 percent of the vote in the Michigan primary, and “uncommitted” came in second at 40 percent.
Instead, when the Democratic National Committee’s rules and bylaws panel convenes May 31 in Washington, D.C., Team Clinton will argue that the 40 percent should be seated as undecided. If the rules and bylaws committee does not side with Clinton, Ickes said, the campaign could bring it to the Democratic convention.
Political analysts say it is unlikely the rules and bylaws committee will favor Clinton’s argument because it would encourage other states to copy Michigan and Florida and move their primary dates earlier. It is more likely the panel will seat half the delegates from each state.
Ickes insisted that even if half are seated, Clinton could still win.
“It’s not over at that point,” he said. “She can still get the nomination by making [her] case to the uncommitted automatic delegates.”
Chris Kofinis, former communication director for ex-presidential candidate John Edwards, said Clinton is running hard, but not for president.
“The reality is there is no mathematical equation by which she can with the nomination,” said Kofinis, who has not committed to either candidate. “This is no longer a race for the nomination. It’s a leverage race for the Clinton campaign. The question is what do they want?”
