The indomitable Harry Reid, Senate majority leader for the better part of eight years, will be stripped of the Senate gavel in January now that Republicans have seized the majority for the 114th Congress.
But don’t expect Reid to vanish from leadership, despite endless GOP campaign promises that a vote for a Republican Senate will mean an end to his reign on Capitol Hill.
“Countdown to Kicking Out Harry Reid,” the headline on a Wall Street Journal opinion piece by Republican strategist Karl Rove blared last summer.
Reid may not be running the Senate floor next year, but he still will be in charge of the Democrats, say those close to the five-term lawmaker.
“He’s not going anywhere,” Democratic strategist Jim Manley told the Washington Examiner.
Manley is a former top aide to Reid and remains a close confidant.
Manley contends that despite election losses that cost the party the majority, the rank and file will remain loyal to Reid, who shielded his caucus from politically difficult votes and otherwise worked to protect the majority.
“The caucus appreciates the fact that he doesn’t play favorites, is a great listener, and that everything he does is designed to protect them,” Manley said.
Reid, 74, has already declared he will run for a sixth term in 2016 and that he plans to be the Democratic leader, with or without the gavel.
But opposition to Reid has been simmering for months, particularly among politically vulnerable Democrats who were blocked in their efforts to introduce legislation and amendments that might have increased their appeal to their red-state constituents.
Reid has used his gavel to prevent most amendments to floor legislation, leaving lawmakers on both sides of the aisle fuming. The move particularly angered Democrats who were eager to show constituents they were having an impact in Washington.
On the campaign trail, Democratic incumbents and candidates refused to throw their support behind Reid if he ran again for majority leader in the 114th Congress.
“I’m going to wait and see what the leadership looks like,” Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., said during a candidates debate last week.
Reid had become kryptonite to Democrats in many races, where Republican Senate candidates worked to tie him to incumbent Democrats.
In a recent Gallup poll, Reid had the lowest approval rating among congressional leaders, though he was not far behind his fellow House and Senate leaders in either party.
If Senate Democrats move to oust Reid, the likely successor would come from the lower ranks of the leadership.
Majority Whip Dick Durbin of Illinois, Democratic Policy Committee Chairman Chuck Schumer of New York and Conference Secretary Patty Murray of Washington are among the Democrats who might vie for the post.
But those who know Reid best say there probably won’t be a challenge, because Reid, a former boxer who rose to power from a small town in the Nevada desert, would be too tough to beat.
“If a Democrat wants to take him on, then they should know they are in for a no-holds-barred fight,” Eric Herzik, chairman of the political science department at the University of Nevada, Reno, told the Examiner.
Jon Ralston, who wrote about Reid’s future on Tuesday and has followed his political ascent for decades, thinks he will remain the top Democrat in the Senate next year, but his prospects for re-election could diminish if Senate Democrats don’t just lose the majority but are crushed by Republicans in places they were expected to win, including Colorado.
“He has engendered a lot of loyalty by taking bullets for caucus members and helping them avoid tough votes,” Ralston told the Examiner. “I think he’s still leader, but it probably depends on the dimensions of the disaster.”
