The most wanted man in the world is without a country, on the run with few or no options of finding sanctuary with former allies.
But the task of finding deposed Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi and his son, Saif al-Islam, is seen as urgent by U.S. intelligence operatives who want to eliminate any chance the pair can reconstitute their resources and perhaps connect with still-loyal army units.
Since capturing the nation’s capital of Tripoli last week, the dictator’s lavish homes, secluded hideouts and military bunkers have been under constant surveillance by rebel fighters. On Monday neighboring Algeria announced that some of Gadhafi’s immediate family members have been given refuge.
The rebels have promised to turn him over to the International Criminal Court, which has issued warrants against father and son for crimes against humanity. Libyan officials and U.S. intelligence officials believe Gadhafi has not left Libya.
“Why would he leave?” said James Carafano, senior defense analyst for the Heritage Foundation. “He has no incentive to turn himself in or to leave the country. In the end, if he’s not captured it could create more problems for a new government than it’s worth.”
Carafano said that Gadhafi has the “resources and the incentive” to raise an insurgency against the opposition.
“One thing we believe for certain is that he has not left Libya and that more than likely he is still somewhere near Tripoli with his son Saif,” said a Libyan official, who spoke on condition that they not be named due to the ongoing crisis.
It may help that a Libyan businessman has reportedly offered several million dollars for his capture and that NATO is using a number of intelligence resources to aide the rebels.
A U.S. intelligence official told The Washington Examiner, “We think most likely he is still in Libya, but like any situation you’re dealing with a variety of reports.”
Those reports vary, much like they did when U.S. forces were on the hunt for both Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. It took U.S. forces nearly nine months to capture the deposed Iraqi leader and almost 10 years to capture bin Laden.
A U.S. official with knowledge of the Libyan crisis said that circumstances were much different Iraq in 2003 when Saddam was on the loose, as well as in Pakistan during the hunt for bin Laden.
Rebel fighters now control Tripoli, as well as the eastern, western and southern borders of the country. The seaports will also be a difficult escape route with NATO ships controlling the majority of the waterways.
Gadhafi’s private planes have been damaged or destroyed and Tripoli’s airport is guarded by forces loyal to Libya’s new Transitional National Council.
Mahmud Shammam, a spokesman for the TNC, confirmed by phone with The Examiner on Monday that members of the council had been notified by the Algerian government that Gadhafi’s wife Safia, his daughter Aisha and two of his six sons, Hannibal and Mohammed, were given a “pass” to enter a third country.
Early Tuesday morning Gadhafi’s daughter gave birth to a girl just hours after seeking exile.
Sara A. Carter is The Washington Examiner’s national security correspondent. She can be reached at [email protected].
