Senate Democrats in the coming days must make the politically sensitive decision whether to block a resolution disapproving of the Iran nuclear deal.
On Tuesday, Democrats reached the critical 41-vote threshold in support of the agreement, enough to filibuster a vote to move forward on a GOP resolution of disapproval. Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., was the last undecided senator, but finally agreed to support the agreement late Tuesday, bringing the total to 42 Democrats.
That gives Democrats the power to prevent the 60 votes needed to advance a resolution disapproving of the agreement, but whether they’ll do that is an open question. If Democrats filibuster it and prevent debate and vote on the measure, that would help President Obama save face by sparing him from having to use his veto pen to block a congressionally approved resolution of disapproval, since stopping the resolution of disapproval is the same result as Congress approving the agreement.
But Democrats would be putting themselves in a politically perilous position of standing in the way of debating and voting a deal that has become increasingly unpopular with the public.
Many Democrats have not said definitively whether they would vote to filibuster the resolution. Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., for example, said he backs the nuclear deal but wants a chance to vote on it, which suggests he might not back a filibuster of the disapproval resolution.
“I think it would be really regrettable if we didn’t ultimately go to the floor and cast our votes for or against this deal,” Coons told CNN.
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., and their aides would not confirm whether they expect the 41 Democrats to remain unified and block the resolution, or instead force Obama keep it alive with his veto pen.
Republicans have been stepping up political pressure on Democrats to skip the filibuster and allow an up or down vote on the measure, and it is clearly hitting a nerve.
In a floor speech Tuesday, Reid called on Republicans to set up the vote differently. He asked Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., to skip the procedural vote to end debate, known as a cloture vote, and move to final passage of the resolution, but with a 60-vote threshold required for passage instead of a 51-vote simple majority.
“If we are forced to have a vote on cloture, it is because the Republican Leader has rejected Democrats’ reasonable and responsible proposal,” Reid said.
Under Reid’s proposal, Democrats would be able to dodge Republican accusations that they stood in the way of a critical debate by filibustering, while still killing the resolution so that Obama would not have to veto it. The Senate seems likely to have just 58 votes for the deal, not 60.
Republicans don’t seem to have much reason for accepting Reid’s proposal, but Reid tried to sell it by saying McConnell has always argued that 60 senators should be needed for passage on important or controversial issues.
As expected, McConnell rejected the offer. A vote to end debate could happen as soon as this week and perhaps on Friday, increasing pressure on Democrats because it would fall on the anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
No decision has been made on vote timing, a GOP leadership aide told the Examiner.
Reid also tried to cast his proposal as one that would avoid an unnecessary procedural vote. “Let’s hope instead of forcing the Senate to jump through procedural hurdles Republicans will agree to vote on final passage,” Reid said.
Reid also pointed out that debate has already begun on the measure, and that numerous lawmakers delivered speeches for and against the deal throughout the day. Formal consideration, however, does not begin until Wednesday afternoon, when all senators will be present in the chamber.
But while Democrats are looking for a way to painlessly get the Iran deal approved, Republicans seemed to be stepping up the pressure to force them to vote on it.
Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R- Texas, and Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker, R-Tenn., pointed out in floor speeches that 98 senators voted in favor of the Nuclear Review Act, which set the terms for Congress debating and voting on the nuclear deal.
“It’s shocking to me,” Cornyn said, “that they would block a vote on the resolution of disapproval that they cooperated in crafting and which bears the president’s signature. That’s another reason why people get so disgusted by what they see here in Washington. Because they feel like there is no accountability. There is no right or wrong anymore.”
Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., said a Democratic filibuster would stifle debate.
“The American people need to have their voices heard in this discussion, which will take place if we are allowed to get on this resolution in the United States Senate,” Thune said.
A spokesman for Durbin said Republicans were expressing “faux outrage” about Democrats blocking the measure, noting that debate has already begun and that even the Nuclear Review Act “allows the resolution to be subject to a 60-vote threshold in some fashion.”
In the end, Democrats are at least confident that the nuclear agreement will survive. In the worst case, Obama would veto a resolution of disapproval, and Congress would be unable to override that veto.
“This agreement will stand,” Reid said. “America will uphold its commitment and we will seize this opportunity to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.”
But the most recent polling includes surveys by CNN/ORC and Quinnipiac University, which found the public disapproves of the accord by 56 percent and 55 percent, respectively.
And in a Pew poll, support for the deal stood at just 21 percent.
