With more than two dozen Republican lawmakers now on record in their opposition to House Speaker John Boehner, GOP leaders this year may face a repeat — or worse — of the struggle to pass critical legislation in Congress.
The opening day of Congress brought immediate turmoil to the House Republican conference.
One of the first votes in the new session was the election of House speaker, and rather than easily re-electing John Boehner to a third term, 24 conservative GOP lawmakers voted for other candidates, while one voted present. Boehner won, but the defection was the largest seen by any party leader running for speaker since the Civil War.
Later in the day, the Republican leadership moved to retaliate by stripping two defectors from a key committee.
Conservatives behind the attempted coup, however, had a message for their leadership.
“The dissatisfaction with where we’ve been is so much wider and deeper than 24 people,” said Rep. Matt Salmon R-Ariz. “If they don’t work with conservatives, it’s going to be a very tumultuous two years.”
The House Republican leadership has been grappling with internal divide for years, beginning with the 2010 freshman class that included dozens of lawmakers who were elected with the backing of the Tea Party movement.
But 2015 infighting could be epic, thanks to an agenda that is likely to include immigration reform, spending legislation and a debate over raising the nation’s debt ceiling.
Immigration reform that goes beyond strengthening border security is likely to garner heavy opposition from the GOP’s conservative voting bloc.
And a deal that would raise the country’s $17.8 trillion debt limit without commensurate cuts almost certainly will hit a conservative roadblock.
“I don’t like to think about that,” Rep. Trent Franks, R-Ariz., said when asked about the looming debt ceiling debate. “That’s when the big fight comes.”
For the Republican leadership, passing bills is a numbers game.
If a piece of legislation is likely to garner no Democratic support, that means Republicans have to ensure there are enough lawmakers in their own party to pass it with a simple majority, which is typically 218 votes.
House Republican leaders have hit some embarrassing roadblocks thanks to this formula, most recently in December.
That’s when they moved to pass a $1.1 trillion bill to fund the federal government and avert a government shutdown.
With Democrats unanimously opposed, a closely watched procedural motion on the bill nearly failed when Republicans struggled to come up with enough of their own votes.
The measure finally passed, but not before reminding GOP leaders, and the nation, of the power of the conservative faction.
The Republican majority is even larger this year, a factor that could come into play as leaders plot the agenda.
House Republicans control 246 seats, which means they can lose 28 votes on any piece of legislation and still pass it without Democratic support.
But with 24 Republicans openly voting against Boehner, there are likely many more, as Salmon threatened, who are willing to buck the leadership, particularly on major legislation that breaks with conservative principles.
Aware of the odds, Republican leaders are rolling out an initial agenda that can garner partywide support. It includes a bill to repeal an onerous Obamacare provision, legislation to make it easier for veterans to find jobs and a measure to approve the Keystone XL pipeline.
Republicans also are appealing to their conservative base on spending legislation. This week, they will take up a Department of Homeland Security funding bill that blocks President Obama from implementing an executive action to provide work permits and some federal benefits to millions of illegal immigrants.
“We have a ground floor with broad support,” a top GOP aide explained. “What we are doing now is feeling out where members are and trying to build legislation that is strong as possible.”
The debt ceiling and immigration, Republicans said, will be the top topics at a joint House-Senate GOP retreat this week.
Conservatives say they will have more leverage, thanks to their opening day revolt.
“Now,” said Rep. Paul Gosar, an Arizona Republican who voted against Boehner, “the debate might be a little bit different.”
