Studies warning of impending disaster aren’t exactly rare in Washington, but a study published last week by the National Defense Strategy Commission (NDSC) should sound like the record scratch that brings the party to a stop. A bipartisan panel created by Congress last year, the NDSC was asked to review the U.S. military’s overall defense strategy and to assess the nation’s capacity to meet likely threats.
“The security and wellbeing of the United States are at greater risk than at any time in decades,” the commission concluded. “America’s military superiority—the hard-power backbone of its global influence and national security—has eroded to a dangerous degree.” Most jarring: In the not inconceivable event the U.S. military were forced to fight a war with China or Russia, the United States “might struggle to win, or perhaps lose.” The United States would almost certainly be overwhelmed by a two-front struggle against those powers, particularly given the near certainty that one or both would launch kinetic or cyber attacks on America. The picture only grows darker when we consider the weapons capabilities of rogue states like Iran and North Korea.
The chief reason America finds itself in this indefensible position? The Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011, which capped military spending as part of a deal on Capitol Hill to keep Treasury from defaulting on its debt. Congress increased military spending for the 2018 and 2019 budget years, but that’s unlikely to continue as Democrats take control of the House. If the cap isn’t waived for the 2020 fiscal year, defense spending could be slashed from its current topline allocation of $716 billion to a base of $576 billion. The BCA mandates across-the-board cuts if the parties don’t reach a deal on raising the caps. Incoming House Armed Services Committee chairman Adam Smith, a Democrat from Washington, has suggested we should expect cuts to the current funding level.
The NDSC report notes that “by 2017, all of the military services were at or near post-World War II lows in terms of end-strength, and all were confronting severe readiness crises and enormous deferred modernization costs.” The brokered budget deals of 2013, 2015, and 2018 provided the Pentagon with some relief, but not enough to make the U.S. military capable of meeting the emerging threats of an expansionist Russia and an increasingly aggressive China.
Republicans hoping just to maintain military spending are in for a fight. The Democrats’ emboldened left wing is ready to indulge its most dovish instincts. On the day the NDSC report was released, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) remarked via Twitter: “There’s no doubt that we need to stay competitive with Russia and China, but we don’t win by building up our military. We win by helping workers prepare for the digital age by investing in broadband and fiber, expanding universities, and increasing funding to [the National Institutes of Health] and [the National Science Foundation].” Contrary to Khanna, we win as we avoid them—by building and maintaining the world’s strongest military.
The Trump administration had been expected to ask for a defense increase of $17 billion to meet the military’s core demands—from this year’s $716 billion to $733, though the Pentagon is also preparing a $700 billion dollar 2020 budget after the president called for a 5 percent spending cut. If the United States wants to maintain its current commitments and meet the demands posed by growing threats, vastly more is needed.
Congress creates commissions like the National Defense Strategy Commission to avoid making tough decisions; it simply ignores the findings. And President Trump frequently congratulates himself for his commitment to the U.S. military without delivering any of the necessary support.
Absent a change of course, the United States will lose the military dominance that has served as the guarantee of the rules-based global order for the past 75 years. That should terrify American policymakers—at least the ones who distrust the peaceable rhetoric of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.
