The Bush administration and its war commanders are tamping down expectations about a congressionally required report on the “surge” of nearly 30,000 U.S. troops in Iraq.
If lawmakers are expecting a pass-or-fail grade in September from Army Gen. David Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker, they should instead prepare for a “good news, bad news” assessment, officials said.
Recommended Stories
“I think we’ll see some trends and be able to point in some directions by September,” Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Saturday after conferring with Petraeus in Baghdad.
Petraeus, asked on “Fox News Sunday” if he’ll know whether the surge is working by September, said, “I think we will have a sense of that. … The ambassador and I think we can provide a reasonable snapshot of the situation at that time and how things have gone in the surge.”
But Petraeus emphasized that the mission of stabilizing Baghdad would not be finished by September.
“I think that we have a lot of heavy lifting to do,” he said.
The lowering of expectations for the September report may not sit well with Republicans. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has said he expects the report to show progress and to lead to troop reductions.
Gates signaled he needs more time. He said the “full impact” of the four-month-old troop reinforcement “is really just beginning to be felt” with the arrival this month of the last of five additional Army brigades in Baghdad.
Another Bush administration theme is that the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is not moving fast enough to bring political reconciliation among Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds.
“There certainly have not been real substantial achievements in that regard so far,” Petraeus said.
“Petraeus is right that there is no military solution alone, but politics and economics must weigh in and soon,” said retired Army Lt. Col. Robert Maginnis, a military analyst.
The biggest roadblocks are failure to pass laws dividing the country’s oil wealth and setting provincial elections, experts say.
“The political process is not yet mature enough to make difficult decisions,” said P.J. Crowley, a national security aide to President Clinton. “The Shia are not yet confident enough of their majority status that they feel they can afford to concede something to the Sunnis. The Sunnis are waiting for significant concessions regarding the existing constitution, the writing of which they boycotted.”
