As Congress struggles to end its stalemate over funding Homeland Security, Republicans are haunted by the start fact that the public usually blames them for spending gridlock.
The extent of the damage is debated — the GOP, after all, won a landslide election victory last November after being blamed for the shutdown a year earlier — and it splits Republicans themselves over whether to accept a shutdown or avoid it like the plague.
“Everything else being equal, since Republicans now control both Houses in Congress my hypotheses is they will be blamed because they are in charge,” Gallup’s editor in chief, Frank Newport, told the Washington Examiner.
The GOP in recent days has been trying to shift the blame to the Democrats, since it is the opposition party’s votes that are blocking the DHS funding bill. But pollsters say it will be difficult to reverse public opinion.
“Trying to wage spending fights when the real battle is over underlying policy matters looks like a partisan political play, which is why Republicans often lose those kinds of fights,” pollster Ron Faucheux, president of Clarus Research Group, told the Washington Examiner.
The fight over the Homeland Security bill is not about money.
Both parties agree they should give the agency $40 billion to run until the end of the fiscal year. Democrats and one Republican have, however, filibustered the legislation in the Senate because it includes provisions to deny funds, and therefore halt, President Obama’s recent executive actions allowing millions of illegal immigrants to get work permits and some federal benefits.
Democrats say they’ll stop blocking the bill only if Republicans take out the immigration provisions, and they’re using the stalemate to their political advantage. The Democrats have held regular press conferences accusing the GOP of bringing the Homeland Security Department to the brink of closure.
Absent new funds, will run out of money on Feb. 27, and Congress is in recess until Feb. 23.
“Next week, there will be only four legislative days left until the Department of Homeland Security shuts down,” House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said to news media on Friday, “Four days. The clock is ticking.”
Republicans face a choice. They can alienate their conservative base by capitulating or they can risk public wrath.
“Republicans are not going to suffer a dip in favorability because they are going to find a way to fund DHS,” GOP pollster Whit Ayers told the Examiner. “Republicans are not going to let funding for our national security agency lapse shortly after another horrific terrorist attack in Paris.”
In the days following the Oct. 2013 government shutdown, GOP leaders in the House and Senate were seething with anger. The 16-day spending fight their conservative base had pushed them to wage against the Democrats had backfired politically, with polls showing the party’s popularity sinking to an all-time low of 28 percent. Polls showed that the majority of the public blamed the GOP for the closures, much as they did in 1995 and 1996, when Speaker Newt Gingrich was in a showdown with President Clinton.
The GOP’s numbers bounced back to normal in the months ahead of the 2014 election, thanks in part to the disastrous roll out of Obamacare, but GOP leaders promised there would be no more shutdowns with them leading both chambers of Congress and with the 2016 presidential election looming ahead.
“I want the American people to be comfortable with the fact that the Republican House and Senate is a responsible, right-of-center, governing majority,” McConnell told the Washington Post after the election.
GOP leaders in the House and Senate have signaled repeatedly they won’t let funding run out at Homeland Security, and aides say it’s likely they’ll pass a short-term measure if no broader deal is reached in time.
But that’s two weeks away. In the meantime, Republicans will try to win the publicity battle against the Democrats.
Senate Republican leaders sent GOP lawmakers home this week with talking points to deliver to constituents on the funding fight, including the fact that Democrats have voted three times to block the DHS funding legislation in the Senate.
“The public needs to know we are not talking about shutting down the government. We are talking about fully funding the DHS, except for the president’s executive actions that most Americans do not support,” Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, told the Washington Examiner. “That’s what we have to explain to people.”
The public’s reaction to Obama’s executive actions have been mixed, with some polls showing the majority disapprove and others indicating the public mostly backs them.
“The reason Republicans are having this fight is because it’s a fight they think they can win and I think the American people will be on their side.” Republican pollster Jim McLaughlin said. “The Republicans have not done well when it comes to government shutdowns. This time, it’s different.”
