Obama needs Angela Merkel like never before

Western-backed sanctions against Russia, coupled with a steep drop in oil prices, have wreaked havoc on the Russian economy. But rather than bring Putin to the negotiating table, as Obama and Merkel hoped, those developments made the Russian leader even more unpredictable — and stoked concerns that he will try to extend his reach beyond Ukraine.

Merkel has often been the glue holding together European nations fatigued by the toll of sanctions on Russia, a major economic partner. And the chancellor has consulted with Putin far more frequently than Obama.

But now Obama will need Merkel to stand firm in the face of growing divisions about how to handle the Kremlin. And the two leaders will have to solve the central question complicating their mission: whether to send lethal arms to Ukraine.

Thus far, the White House has resisted bipartisan calls to provide deadly weaponry to a severely overmatched Ukrainian army, saying it would only inflame tensions between Moscow and Kiev.

In recent days, Ashton Carter, Obama’s defense secretary nominee, said he supported providing arms to Ukraine, perhaps giving the president an opening to escalate the U.S. response.

However, Merkel has also expressed reservations about such a strategy, saying the dispute in Ukraine cannot be solved militarily.

Analysts said that if Obama signs off on sending weapons to Ukraine, he’ll need to convince Merkel to change her mind as well.

“It would be far better if it was a U.S.-European effort rather than just Obama going alone,” said Anthony Cordesman, the Arleigh A. Burke chairman in strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “He needs Germany to resolve the extent to which they want to be involved militarily. The problem is there’s nothing you can do all that quickly.”

The White House acknowledges that Obama will discuss lethal assistance with Merkel, despite being uneasy about potential repercussions.

“In light of the recent escalation in fighting, exemplified by the fact that the separatists have pushed beyond the line of control and that Russia is resupplying the separatists in a very significant way, we are re-evaluating our security assistance again,” a senior administration official said. “But let me just say that our goal here is to find a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. We do not see a military resolution in the offing.”

Such uncertainty has allowed Putin to operate relatively unchecked, even with the Russian economy in tatters. Putin has yet to face the type of domestic pressure that would force him to listen to international demands.

Though typically in lockstep in their approach to Ukraine, the Obama-Merkel relationship has been strained, most notably by the U.S. intelligence community tapping Merkel’s cellphone.

It was no accident that the Obama administration just recently announced new reforms to how the National Security Agency would store foreign citizens’ data. But those changes are relatively modest and unlikely to assuage Merkel’s concerns about NSA surveillance methods.

Also, Obama has somewhat needled Merkel by urging less austerity in Greece’s economic recovery, a country bailed out primarily by Germany. Obama is sounding a similar message at home about the need to focus more on job creation than deficits — a call Merkel would likely consider premature given the fragile economic state of many European Union members.

Obama must now sustain the unity of Western allies on Ukraine, which he cannot accomplish without Merkel, diplomatic insiders said.

“I think it’s fair to say that [Obama] has hitched his wagon to Merkel,” a former Obama State Department official told the Washington Examiner. “I think it’s also fair to say that they have very real doubts about whether Putin will listen to anything. But if there’s going to be a solution, it has to start with Merkel.”