CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa — The Bernie Sanders campaign has expanded its ground game enough in Iowa in the weeks leading up to the caucus that the once relatively unknown Democratic socialist could very well beat Hillary Clinton Monday night. But will his supporters actually turn up to vote?
It’s a question the Sanders campaign has been grappling with in the final week of the Iowa caucus. The latest Iowa polls show the two candidates within three points of each other (45-42), and the difference between a win and a loss could come down to how many people decide drive to their caucus site as a snowstorm rolls into the state. And this is something of which the Sanders campaign is very aware.
“Right now I’d say today it is a toss up,” Sanders told volunteers at an event in Mount Pleasant, Iowa, on Saturday. “We will win the caucus on Monday night if there is a large voter turnout. We will lose the caucus of there is a low voter turnout. And then in many ways Iowa will become an example for the rest of the country.”
Said Iowan Kathy Pickart after a Sanders event in Mount Pleasant: “He’s had a surge of people gathering lately. More people are caucusing for him than I’ve heard ever want to caucus … I work at a school so I talk to a lot of people, and some people that I am shocked would caucus are caucusing.”
This past week, Sanders has acknowledged that his campaign likely will not bring out the kind of support that President Obama did in 2008, but his supporters are hoping to bring out at least enough to defeat Clinton. Following a campaign event on Saturday, a group of volunteers huddled to discuss strategy.
“What’s most important is making sure that your neighbors who like Bernie actually get to that caucus room. If not we could be in trouble” one volunteer told the group.
In addition to the close polling numbers, the majority of Sanders’ supporters are either first time caucus-goers or are voters in their 20s. Seventy-five percent of voters under the age of 30 support Sanders, and he also leads Clinton among first-time caucus-goers 62-35. While these leads have helped him gather momentum, the groups are the least likely to actually show up on caucus night.
On college campuses, the Sanders campaign has been encouraging students to go home to caucus in their parents’ precincts, rather than caucus at their university precinct, most of which are more liberal. During a Saturday night rally at the University of Iowa, the Vermont senator implored students to caucus, promising them that participating in politics isn’t “lame.”
Adding to the concern that these younger and first-time voters may not be be politically motivated to show up, eight-12 inches of snow are expected over Des Moines beginning Monday night.
Iowan Amy Krapfle said that while many of her neighbors are worried about the weather, their love of Sanders may trump their concerns. “The weather may be an issue. But people think that Hillary is a very polarizing personality, so I think they’ll come out. He’ll do great in Iowa.”
