In the end, a nuanced political argument over whether Tuesday’s election is a referendum on President Obama or a choice between competing philosophies probably won’t matter.
Voters, fearful about their economic prospects, worried about jobs and disgusted with Washington, are poised to shift the balance of power from Democrats to Republicans.
This, despite the fact that a recent Gallup Poll found both parties held in roughly equal low regard by a majority of Americans.
“It’s important for Democrats to learn from this,” Sen. Evan Bayh, an Indiana Democrat who is leaving office partly out of disgust for Washington politics, said Monday on MSNBC.
By ignoring voters’ true concerns and focusing instead on advancing an ambitious but somewhat off-topic agenda, Obama and congressional Democrats created the conditions for what many expect to be their trouncing at the polls.
“People haven’t fallen in love with the Republican Party,” Bayh said. “They poll actually a little bit worse than the Democrats. It’s just they don’t feel we were addressing their concerns.”
Democratic policies have not delivered on jobs. And despite Obama’s repeated campaign claims that the economy is improving, polls show that many Americans remain fearful about their next mortgage or rent payment.
For nearly two years now, polls have shown that voters’ concerns about their own finances far more than issues like health care, energy, war, the environment or the federal budget deficit — the very issues on which Obama focused in his first two years in office.
Obama’s massive health care reform initiative, on which he compromised to win congressional approval, left his supports decrying its timidity and his opponents claiming it was excessive.
Despite assurances from the White House that a nearly $800 billion stimulus program would keep unemployment below 8 percent, it didn’t.
The president’s ambitious but divisive carbon emissions bill stalled, along with immigration reform and other major priorities.
Voters simply didn’t like what they were getting. About 80 percent have little faith in Obama’s Wall Street reforms, a Bloomberg poll showed. Another 58 percent of the public favors repealing his health care reforms, a Rasmussen Reports poll found. More than 60 percent consider the stimulus plan a bust, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll.
Trying to staunch their losses, the White House created a new campaign issue: Outside funding of negative campaign ads by groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, that don’t reveal their contributors. The strategy helped distract attention from Republican attacks, but failed to address voters’ biggest worries.
House Republican Leader John Boehner, heir apparent for the speaker’s job if Republicans seize the House, warned that “Americans are demanding a new way forward in Washington.”
Obama, at times appearing tired and dispirited, was unable to recreate the magic of 2008, when his policy proposals and promises of change were popular.
Republicans, emboldened by their chances of retaking the House, now talk about restricting Obama to one term.
“I know that we’re in the final days of a campaign, so it’s not surprising that we’re seeing this heated rhetoric,” Obama said. “That’s politics.”
