The announcement that Libyan strongman Col. Moammar Gadhafi had been killed ignited celebrations in the streets of Tripoli Thursday, but for U.S. experts and intelligence officials Gadhafi’s death ushers in a time of anxiousness and uncertainty over who will ultimately hold power in Libya, and who will gain control of huge caches of sophisticated weapons.
Gadhafi was killed after being pulled from a sewage draining ditch near his former hometown of Sirte, where he had made his last stand. He had been fleeing NATO attacks, which had included American Predator drones, according to reports. The Libyan leader apparently was armed when fighters found him in the culvert, and was heard to say, “Don’t shoot, don’t shoot,” according to a Reuters report. There were conflicting reports about how he died. But a grisly video taken at the scene by rebels shows the dictator, who had ruled for 42 years and who was once seen as one of America’s most hated adversaries, either already dead or badly wounded, with blood on his face and soaking his clothes.
While emphasizing that Gadhafi’s death is “good news for the Libyan people,” the future of the oil-rich African nation and its new National Transitional Council is hard to predict said Jim Phillips, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington.
“There are emerging political, tribal and ideological cleavages that could widen into cracks in the coalition that formed the National Transitional Council,” Phillips said.
The instability could make the difficult task of assuring that dangerous weapons don’t reach terrorists almost impossible, experts said.
“One of my top concerns is the need to urgently locate, secure and recover weapons that have been taken out of Libya’s armory,” Phillips said. “Already Manpads [Man Portable Air Defense Systems] have been found in the Sinai that have been smuggled into Gaza. If they have already been found going to Hamas which is much further away, they are also going to end up in the hands of al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb.”
United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon hinted at ongoing international concerns with Libya Thursday. “Let us recognize immediately that this is only the end of the beginning. The road ahead for Libya and its people will be difficult and full of challenges,” he said.
Gadhafi’s regime had stored more than 10 tons of mustard gas at arms depots south of Sirte, according to reports from the region. Other weapons depots have been found either looted or without security. Hundreds of tons of uranium yellow-cake, a raw material used in creating a nuclear weapon is also in facilities in the country. The surface-to-air missiles pose the most significant threat, a U.S. official said.
Anthony Cordesman, a senior analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, said that Libya will need support from the United States and allies in reestablishing its enormous oil exports, stabilizing its fledgling government and retrieving its looted weapons.
“Stability in Libya is going to be a real issue for America,” Cordesman said. “I think we need to remember what triggered most American perceptions about Libya; the shooting down of an American airliner. We do need to be concerned, not because we face a vast major terrorist threat, but because we should have learned from the Lockerbie bombing and 911, even a single terrorist event is detrimental.”
Government institutions, such as functioning systems of justice and security that represent all tribal groups will be necessary in ensuring stability, Cordesman added. “For decades [Libya] has been the toy of one eccentric leader,” he said.
Sara A. Carter is The Washington Examiner’s national security correspondent. She can be reached at [email protected].
