Political prognosticators foresee an exceptionally expensive battle approaching for Virginia’s open Senate seat, where a high-stakes, national fight over a once-secure Republican state could draw extra millions into coffers on both sides.
Robert Denton, a political communications professor at Virginia Tech, said he wouldn’t be surprised if candidates each spent at least $25 million, and as much as $35 million, in their bids to succeed Republican Sen. John Warner.
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Former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, remains the only declared candidate, though two Republicans — Rep. Tom Davis and former Gov. Jim Gilmore — are expected to enter the race.
“This will be one of the marquee races,” Denton said. “The Democrats, I know, are just salivating. It does give them a genuine shot for the first time in a long time … to have both [Virginia] senators Democratic.”
Two other political analysts agreed it is possible that each side would spend as much as $35 million.
More expensive media costs, driven in part by competition for media resources from the parallel presidential election — plus the high-stakes nature of the race in Virginia — will ratchet up campaign expenses.
The spending could dwarf the amounts expended by both sides in the 2006 race in which Democrat Jim Webb spent roughly $8.5 million to narrowly edge out Republican George Allen, who spent $16 million.
“I think [Denton] is right,” said Sean O’Brien, director of the University of Virginia’s Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership. “There is so much at stake. It’s a presidential year, media buys are going to bemore expensive.”
