Romney takes first lead in S.C. polls

The move is significant because many political analysts thought Romney would stumble in South Carolina after expected strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, where the former Massachusetts governor has been the front-runner for months.

Romney’s campaign was heartened by the development, but careful to keep expectations low.

“It shoots holes in the theory that he can’t be competitive in the state,” said Romney spokesman Kevin Madden. “Sure, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee are more likely to win in South Carolina than we are, but Governor Romney is still making a great deal of headway.”

According to the Real Clear Politics, a Web site that averages the national polls, Romney has the support of 19.3 percent of South Carolina Republicans. Giuliani has 19.0 percent and Thompson has 18.3 percent.

Although that amounts to a statistical dead heat, Romney had spent months trailing Giuliani by double digits. It was widely believed his Mormonism would hurt him among the state’s evangelical Christians.

“I really think the key is the fact that he’s been advertising, which the other candidates have generally not been doing,” said Bill Moore, political science professor at the College of Charleston. “Those television ads have helped to boost his stock in South Carolina.”

Romney has been counting on strong performances in Iowa and New Hampshire to create momentum that will push him to victory in other states. The strategy would take on greater force if he maintains or increases his lead in South Carolina, which holds its GOP primary Jan. 19, just days after the Iowa and New Hampshire contests.

“It would be very significant because it would demonstrate that he could do well in three different parts of the country, including a southern state,” Moore said. “If he does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and actually ends up winning in South Carolina, that puts him in an exceptionally strong position.”

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