District: 11th (Fairfax, Prince William Counties) First elected: 2008 (def. Keith Fimian) Margin of victory in last election: 41,840 votes Votes on key issues Health care overhaul: Yes Cap and trade: Yes
Running a campaign against federal spending in the shadow of the national government is a tricky venture. Tens of thousands of government workers make their home in the affluent 11th District, and both Republicans seeking to unseat freshman Democrat Gerry Connolly are looking for a way to oppose a growing federal bureaucracy without alienating voters who make their living from it.
It’s one of the reasons why the 11th District isn’t seen as the likeliest of Republican pickups in Virginia. But the Virginia GOP nevertheless believes it has a real shot of turning a recently-blue district back to red. The 11th, which voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008, broke for Gov. Bob McDonnell last year.
Connolly has made overtures toward fiscal conservatism, urging small-business tax cuts and deficit reduction measures. But Connolly has largely embraced the president’s initiatives.
A December poll conducted by Republican firm Tel Opinion Research showed Connolly five points ahead of Republican challenger Pat Herrity, 45 percent to 40 percent. Herrity’s primary opponent, Keith Fimian, was 12 points behind Connolly.
Republicans, including former 11th District Rep. Tom Davis, have touted the survey as evidence that Connolly is vulnerable.
Del. Vivian Watts, D-Annandale, disagrees. Connolly’s experience in local politics, as a Fairfax County supervisor and eventual chairman of the 10-member board, “is going to serve him well,” she said.
That experience showed in his “deliberate” approach on health care in which he engages with constituents in town hall meetings, Watts said. Critics had accused the congressman of staging events in controlled settings to shield himself from the worst rancor over the health bill.
“The [negative] climate is very much out there, the rhetoric is out there,” Watts said. “It’s going to be up to Connolly to cut his way through that.”
