Republican gains in the House, once predicted to be modest, could end up large enough to give the party its largest majority in more than 65 years.
Pollsters and race analysts blame President Obama’s low approval rating for a House Democratic outlook on Election Day that is suddenly much more dire.
“It’s about the president,” Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, told the Washington Examiner. “The president’s job approval number has not rebounded. It’s even gotten worse. And that has forced Democrats into a defensive posture.”
Instead of contending with a GOP gain of about five seats, as many analysts predicted weeks ago, Democrats are facing the loss of up to a dozen seats, enough to give Republicans a majority of 247 seats.
“Our outlook is a Republican gain of between six and 12 seats,” said David Wasserman, editor of House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “If they were to win nine seats, they’d win their largest majority since 1946. If they were to win 13 seats, they’d win their largest majority since 1932.”
Republicans now control the House by a margin of 233 votes to 199 votes and their majority is practically indestructible, Gonzales said, because even if they lost all 14 competitive Republican races, they would still control the majority.
“I’ve never seen that in the 12 years I’ve been doing this,” Gonzales said. “There’s always a tiny bit of uncertainty. But this time, the only uncertainty is how many seats the Republicans are going to gain.”
As of late summer, analysts predicted a gain of between five and eight seats for the GOP. With few seats in play, Republicans are far more limited in the races they can win than was the case in 2010, when they swept dozens of races with the help of Tea Party candidates.
A handful of additional Democratic House seats are now in play, raising the estimate.
Wasserman pointed to a trio of swing-district races in New York that are slipping away from Democrats. Reps.Tim Bishop, Sean Patrick Maloney and Dan Maffei are suddenly in “toss up” territory after maintaining an edge all summer.
Their prospects of losing to Republican challengers have increased as it becomes more likely the national mood among voters will favor Republicans on Tuesday.
Recent generic ballot polling suggests Republicans indeed will have a big night.
CBS News and ABC News polls last week gave the GOP eight- and six-point leads, respectively.
Obama’s disapproval rating has hovered around 54 percent most of the year, partly because of public dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy, health care and foreign policy, polls show.
House Democrats are girding themselves for significant losses.
Rep. Steve Israel, D-N.Y., head of the House Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, admitted Democrats are struggling but said House losses are common in a mid-term election for the party that controls the White House.
“I’m not going to sugarcoat it,” Israel told Fox News on Friday. “It’s tough terrain. It’s a presidential midterm election.”
