A new poll shows Texas Sen. Ted Cruz enjoying a home-state advantage over fellow Republican presidential hopefuls Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, less than a week before Texas and 11 other states cast their votes on March 1.
According to the latest Monmouth University survey of Republican voters in the Lone Star State, Cruz (38 percent) carries a 15-point lead over Trump (23 percent) in his home state. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio draws 21 percent support and is well within the survey’s margin of error against Trump. The remaining two candidates – former neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Ohio Gov. John Kasich – both trailed Rubio by 15 percentage points or more.
Cruz has faced three consecutive losses in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada after winning big in Iowa. With a slew of endorsements going to Rubio and Trump poised to do well in several, if not all of the Super Tuesday states, the Texas senator’s chances of securing the GOP nomination are beginning to look increasingly bleak. However, winning big in Texas, the state with the most delegates up for grabs so far this election cycle, could give Cruz enough hope to remain in the race even if he’s dealt losses elsewhere next week.
The news also comes the same morning as a poll showing Rubio trailing Trump by double digits in his home state of Florida. Taken together, the polls provide ammo to Cruz, who has been making the argument that he’s in the best position to beat Trump if and when the field narrows to a two-man race. Texas is a huge prize, with 155 total delegates, though the delegates are allocated proportionately. The only way Cruz can win all of the delegates is to win over 50 percent of the vote statewide and in each congressional district.
The Monmouth survey shows Cruz leading his Republican rivals among men (44 percent) and very conservative voters (54 percent), but performing poorly among moderate voters, of which only 10 percent indicated they support him. In Texas, self-described moderate voters make up about 20 percent of the Republican electorate.
Cruz has already seen strong support among early voters, however. Texas allows voters to cast their ballots before the March 1 primary and so far, 44 percent of these voters have chosen to support their senator. Another 30 percent of GOP voters have completely decided which candidate they plan to support, while the same percentage strongly prefer one candidate, but remain open to others.
“Cruz looks to be well-positioned in Texas. The challenge for him is that a lot of other states are also on the slate for Super Tuesday,” Patrick Murray, director of the New Jersey-based Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.
According to the same survey, 50 percent of Texas Republicans would be satisfied with one of the five remaining GOP candidates as their party’s nominee. Nearly 30 percent however said they would be upset if Trump succeeds in securing the nomination. Twelve percent said the same of Cruz and Kasich, 8 percent of Rubio and 6 percent of Carson.
The survey of 760 Texas voters – including 456 likely Republican primary participants – was conducted between Feb. 22-24. Results contain a margin of error plus or minus 4.6 percent.
