Chinese officials, before signing a pact to curb greenhouse gas emissions earlier this month, were concerned about whether the U.S. could meet its target, said Todd Stern, the State Department’s top climate negotiator.
Stern, speaking Monday at a Washington event hosted by the Center for American Progress, said China has long monitored U.S. domestic politics. Given the incoming Republican Congress’ desire to halt efforts to restrain emissions, Stern said Chinese negotiators were initially skittish about whether the U.S. could honor its word in the future.
“I think they were just as concerned about the notion of the capacity of the U.S. to implement the targets,” Stern said. He added that it was important to the Chinese that the U.S. set a goal that avoids potential congressional pitfalls, so the Obama administration used an accounting of regulatory and executive actions available to it to set the mark.
“This is a stretch target for us. But our sense is we can get there using the authorities we have,” Stern said.
On Capitol Hill, it was Republicans who openly questioned whether China would live up to its end of the non-binding accord. Even if it did, GOP lawmakers didn’t see any pain for China — under the terms, its emissions will be allowed to rise until 2030, when they would peak and begin declining.
On top of that, U.S. negotiators had originally sought a 2025 peak date for China. Meanwhile, President Obama committed the U.S. to cutting emissions 26 percent below 2005 levels by 2025, which amounts to doubling the pace of emissions reductions beyond 2020.
Stern said, however, that the Chinese are serious about curbing emissions. He noted that domestic air quality concerns have rattled the regime.
“I think it is a matter of first-order priority for the Chinese back home,” Stern said.
Getting China to even announce a peak date was politically significant, as it signals the world’s top two emitters are now on the same page about the need to address climate change heading into international negotiations next year in Paris.
“If you were holding stock in the Paris negotiation, your stock would have gone up after the announcement,” Stern said.
