As Mitt Romney prepares to deliver a major speech designed to ease concerns about his Mormon faith, political analysts suggest that his biggest problem is defining himself to voters.
“Does anybody really know who Mitt Romney is?” said Erick Erickson, editor of the conservative political blog Redstate.com. “That is the basic reason he is having trouble right now.”
Romney is scheduled to deliver a speech today titled “Faith in America” at the George Bush Presidential Library in Texas.
The remarks will be aimed at allaying misgivings about his Mormonism that have helped Mike Huckabee, a Baptist minister, draw even with Romney in Iowa as they sprint to the Jan. 3 caucuses.
Erickson and others say Romney’s decision to deliver the speech now — months after campaign aides urged him to do it — reflects his tendency to base his actions heavily on poll numbers. Another example, Erickson said, was Romney’s decision this week to fire a lawn-service company that hired illegal workers — after it became clear that the issue was hurting his candidacy.
“He has tried to be all things to all people and has made his positions seem poll driven rather than genuine,” Erickson said.
ADec. 5 Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll underscored this point. It found that Republican voters placed Romney last among the candidates who are “best at saying what they believe, rather than saying what they think the voters want to hear.”
Television advertisements in Iowa have depicted Romney as a candidate who has flip-flopped on abortion, gay rights and other social issues.
“There’s no question he’s in trouble,” said University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato. “Most political observers now believe Huckabee will win the Iowa caucus unless Romney and the other candidates can dump a lot of negative attacks on him.”
If Romney loses in Iowa, Sabato said, “Then he has to win New Hampshire convincingly. If he does not, he’s finished; it’s over.”
Polls show Romney has maintained a very strong lead in New Hampshire. In Zogby’s Dec. 5 New Hampshire Poll, Romney enjoyed an 18 point lead over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), a 20-point lead over national frontrunner Rudy Giuliani and a 25-point lead over Huckabee.
Many political professionals speculate the publicity from an Iowa victory for Huckabee will not have time to take hold in New Hampshire, which holds its primaries just five days later.
David All, a Republican strategist, said Romney spent millions of dollars to establish an early presence in Iowa, adding it was inevitable he would slip in the polls.
“Voters are just now starting to consider the entire field of candidates,” All said.
