After months of facing minimal opposition advertising, Donald Trump could confront a choppy final two weeks before the Iowa caucuses as allies of Ted Cruz mount a major assault.
Keep the Promise I, the leading super PAC behind the Texas senator’s presidential bid, told the Washington Examiner on Monday that the digital ad it unveiled targeting the New York celebrity businessman “will likely go on TV in the near future.” Meanwhile, the new spot is being jointly pushed as well via the digital networks of the group’s sister pro-Cruz super PACs: Keep the Promise, Keep the Promise II and Keep the Promise III.
“Primary contests can turn ugly, especially when front-runners realize their lead is shrinking and that voters might prefer a solid record to snarky rhetoric,” Kellyanne Conway, president of Keep the Promise I, said in a statement.
The 60-second digital ad, featuring an audio recording of Trump extensively praising Cruz before an audience of Florida Republicans in 2014, is being circulated among GOP primary voters in the four early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. The venues where the spot can be seen or heard include Facebook, YouTube, Snapchat, iHeartRadio and Pandora.
Cruz and Trump are in a dogfight for Iowa, with the winner of the Feb. 1 caucuses likely emerging as the front-runner for the Republican nomination heading into the other three early primary states that vote next month. For months, the two front-runners maintained an alliance, directing their fire at other Republican contenders. That ended Thursday, during the prime time debate in South Carolina.
Slipping in Iowa, Trump began asserting that the senator was constitutionally ineligible for the presidency because he was born in Canada. Most experts disagree, saying Cruz satisfies the “natural-born” requirement because his mother is a natural-born U.S. citizen. Cruz took Trump to task for this during the debate, while also tarring the reality television star for being a liberal with “New York values.” Trump parried that charge by raising the specter of the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
This fresh battle in the crowded and competitive Republican primary could change the complexion of the race. Until Cruz and Trump locked horns, they were coasting toward February. Cruz was absorbing criticism only from Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. Trump was coming under periodic criticism from former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Lower-tier candidates and derided as “moderates” by the GOP base, neither managed to land any punches.
A Republican consultant who is active in the 2016 campaign and requested anonymity in order to speak candidly said the Cruz-Trump fight could prove significant. “If the back-and-forth raises negatives of either or both, yes,” this operative said. “If their images take a hit, other choices become more appealing. Also hurts the likelihood of supporters of one supporting the other if their first choice slips.”
Throughout the campaign, Trump has appeared to be a Teflon candidate. Controversial rhetoric that would have sunk normal politicians hasn’t hurt him. Being called — among other things — a jerk, a liberal and a racist by Democrats, Republicans and the press, has proven similarly ineffective. And yet, concluding that Trump is impervious to criticism would be incorrect considering the fact that there has been no sustained paid media campaign to take him down.
Indeed, Trump has been leading in most state and national polls for months, and Keep the Promise I’s modest digital attack on Trump constitutes the first independent expenditure leveled against him in several weeks. Who has been facing the most advertising fire, including from the Cruz super PACs? Rubio, who is running third in Iowa and nationally, and second in New Hampshire.
Cruz and his allied super PACs are in a position to test Trump’s strength. The senator has the standing among conservatives, and his collection of supportive independent groups have the cash, to prosecute the conservative, Republican case against Trump, a populist with no ideological moorings. But that depends on Cruz keeping up the fight against the billionaire real estate mogul, and on his super PACs following suit with their resources.
One neutral Republican strategist called it a “big test of Cruz world’s resolve.”
