Factors that made Ramadi vulnerable to attack from Islamic State fighters also reside in the contested northern city of Beiji, raising questions as to whether Iraqi Security Forces will be able to hold the strategic refinery there.
Like Ramadi, Beiji has been in a fragile state for months, and until recently, Iraqi forces defending the facility went weeks without reinforcements or resupply.
And both cities have seen dramatic attacks meant to drive out Iraqi forces. In Ramadi, Islamic State fighters set off a series of car bombs. In Beiji, according to news reports, militants torched sections of the refinery’s infrastructure.
“Beiji remains contested,” Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren said. “Iraqi Security Forces have control of a portion of Beiji in the northwest, enemy forces control a portion of Beiji in the southeast, and the fight continues.”
“The capture of the refinery by ISIS is not inevitable, but it is certainly possible,” said Kenneth Katzman, a senior analyst and Middle East expert at the Congressional Research Service.
But so far, Iraqi forces are still holding, even though they are outnumbered.
An estimated 300 Iraqi Security Forces are inside the facility, compared to several hundred more Islamic State fighters holding large parts of the outside and inside the perimeter. Unlike Ramadi, those Iraqi Forces are still holding and defending a key part of the facility.
“It’s fair to say [Islamic State forces] control the majority of the complex,” a senior defense official said on the condition of anonymity.
In Beiji’s favor, unlike Ramadi, which is squarely in Islamic State-controlled territory, the refinery is lined with cities controlled by Iraqi Security Forces. Also, some 200 coalition airstrikes in Beiji over the past month have aided the Iraqis as they protect the refinery.
In recent days, Shiite militias have surrounded the outskirts of the city to add pressure on Islamic State fighters. In the last week, forces have reopened a major ground route that funnels in reinforcements and supplies.
The Beiji refinery covers an area comparable to the triangle between Georgetown University, the Washington Navy Yard and Arlington Cemetery.
It is Iraq’s largest refinery, but is considered inoperable due to the damage it has sustained over the past year. Yet it is still an attractive target for the Islamic State because oil revenues from captured refineries are a major part of the group’s funding stream.
Islamic State militants first attacked the refinery last June and the area has been contested since last fall.
In the months since, the Islamic State’s hold on Beiji has gradually increased, and the terror group controlled up to 90 percent of the refinery at one point, a senior defense official said. That percentage has dropped since, but Islamic State forces still dominate the city, despite the hundreds of U.S. and coalition airstrikes launched against them in and around Beiji over the past month.
Katzman said the airstrikes can make the difference as to whether Beiji falls to the Islamic State. Larger issues, however, will affect whether the victory sticks.
“The same problems that plague Iraqi forces elsewhere are in play at Beiji,” Katzman said. “Ineffective leadership, confused chains of command, interference by political loyalists, and apathy, at best, from the surrounding Sunni population that continues to distrust Baghdad.”
