Can Hillary Clinton win the Democratic nomination if she loses in Iowa?
Probably not without a struggle, Democratic strategists agree, now that a new poll shows Barack Obama leading Clinton and the rest of the Democratic pack in that state.
In fact, Clinton could ultimately lose the nomination if she loses by a wide margin in Iowa.
With a front-loaded primary schedule that could determine the Republican and Democratic nominees by the end of the first week in February, the Iowa Caucus matters more than ever, strategists agree.
The Jan. 3 event comes just five days before the New Hampshire primary, so the outcome in Iowa could greatly influence voters in the Granite State.
After New Hampshire, there is less than a month before 20 states participate in Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, at which point enough delegates could be committed for a nominee to emerge in each party.
“Without a doubt, if anyone bests Clinton in Iowa, there is going to be an opening for them absolutely,” said Ted Devine, who was a top campaign strategist for John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic nominee for president.
Devine has experience with surprises in Iowa. He was advising Kerry in January 2004 when the Massachusetts senator was trailing Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean in state polls. But Kerry shocked everyone by winning the caucus by a substantial margin, and the victory pumped new life into his campaign. Kerry then won the New Hampshire primary and went on to capture the Democratic nomination.
Losses by Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire, Devine said, would result in “a very long month for her and a very difficult nominating process despite the advantages she has going into the primaries.”
But Devine, like other Democratic operatives, said he believes Clinton will not suffer the same fate as Dean or Gephardt and will likely become the nominee, barring a catastrophic defeat in Iowa or another major primary.
Devine said he believes recent Iowa poll numbers showing Obama drawing 30 percent of support compared to Clinton’s 26 percent are probably not accurate because most Iowa voters are still undecided. The poll included 500 participants. About 100,000 Iowans voted in the 2004 caucus.
The new poll figures, however, appear to have energized Obama’s already vigorous campaign, putting him in the position of front-runner, while Clinton tries to catch up.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich predicted in an ABC News interview that he believes Obama will win by a substantial margin in Iowa, in part because “the emotional energy that Senator Obama’s building is more powerful than the emotional energy Senator Clinton’s building.”
Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said one poll showing Obama in the lead does not mean Clinton will stumble in Iowa, but if she does, it could seriously damage her candidacy.
“If she ends up losing Iowa, she is going to have to fight hard for that nomination through February 5,” Mellman said. “She could still win, but it won’t be quite the easy march that people have predicted. She could win it, but she might not.”
