Ever since Rudy Giuliani launched his bid for the Republican nomination more than a year ago, he has pursued an unorthodox strategy: Concentrate on winning the later, delegate-rich primaries and pay scant attention to the early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
But that plan has sapped his strength in the national polls and also seems to have hurt him in the Florida primary on Jan. 29, which was supposed to act as a “fire wall” that would pave the way to victories a week later in many of the 20 contests on Super Tuesday.
“It’s really curious that his campaign has staked so much on Florida and now the polls say he is not necessarily in the lead there,” said Republican strategist Charlie Gerow, who worked for the Bush campaign.
A Jan. 7 Insider Advantage poll put Giuliani ahead by five points in Florida, far below the double-digit lead he held just a month earlier.
Perhaps more important, Giuliani has squandered the national lead that he once cited as evidence of his pre-eminence in the Republican field. A Rasmussen reports poll released Thursday put Iowa winner Mike Huckabee ahead of the pack by four points.
The connection between Giuliani’s decline and his strategy is most evident now in Michigan, where he once was neck and neck with Mitt Romney in the run-up to the state’s Jan. 15 primary.
Recent polls show that Giuliani’s support has been cut in half in Michigan in the wake of his abysmal finishes in the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary.
Giuliani has been supplanted at the top of the polls in Michigan by surging New Hampshire victor John McCain, who is duking it out with Romney for a victory that is crucial to each man’s campaign.
“If Giuliani loses the nomination, it will be one of the discussions that he should have been competitive in New Hampshire and Michigan,” said Michigan Republican Committee Chairman Saulius Anuzis. “If he would have been one of the top three out of New Hampshire or Michigan going into Super Tuesday, that would have been helpful.”
Giuliani could go into the Florida primary without a victory under his belt, and experts say that could put his chances there in jeopardy.
Still, Gerow said, Giuliani remains popular nationally as well as in Northeast industrial states like Pennsylvania, where he is expected to capture most of the delegates.
“I don’t think it’s over for Giuliani at all, but they have not chosen the path of least resistance, that is for sure,” Gerow said.
