If the polls are to be believed, Republicans want to nominate an pro-choice, anti-gun, thrice-married, New York City champion of gays and illegal aliens for president in 2008.
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani — at least on paper — is precisely the sort of candidate that most conservatives would vote against in a GOP presidential primary.
And yet in person, Giuliani is a living reminder of the powerful leadership he displayed in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. That leadership has translated into enormous credibility on the all-important issue of national security, which Giuliani hopes will assuage conservatives who disagree with his positions on social issues.
“We need a leader who can look to the future and realize the goal that we’re trying to accomplish, which is to make the world safe from terrorism,” Giuliani told a gathering of Iowa Republicans in May. “To make sure that attacks like we experienced on September 11 — or they experienced in the United Kingdom on July 7, just last year — make sure we do everything we can to prevent them and avoid them.”
Such rhetoric represents a shift in emphasis for Giuliani, who in 1999 made a point of telling CNN: “I’m pro-choice. I’m pro-gay rights.” As mayor, he routinely marched in New York’s gay pride parades and even appeared in drag at various functions, several of which were nationally televised.
The recent shift to national security is a welcome relief to those who would like to see Giuliani in the White House.
“Yes, he has a very inclusive record on gay rights,” says Patrick Sammon, executive vice president of Log Cabin Republicans. “But ultimately, people are most concerned about who’s able to keep their family safe. And that’s certainly going to be more important to people than what the candidate might feel about gay rights.”
Ironically, Giuliani’s stock as a presidential contender is widely expected to rise if the U.S. is attacked again by terrorists.
“If we are still at war, and we get hit again, I think that changes the dynamics,” says Michael Long, chairman of the Conservative Party of New York State. “He is seen as a strong leader.”
Even now, Giuliani almost always ranks first in Republican preference polls for the 2008 nomination, besting Arizona Sen. John McCain, the media favorite. But those preferences might change when greater numbers of conservatives come to realize that while McCain is proudly anti-abortion, Giuliani is unabashedly pro-choice.
“I’ve said that I’ll uphold a woman’s right of choice, that I will fund abortion so that a poor woman is not deprived of a right that others can exercise, and that I would oppose going back to a day in which abortions were illegal,” Giuliani told talk show host Phil Donahue during his first run for mayor in 1989.
“If the ultimate choice of the woman — my daughter or any other woman — would be that in this particular circumstance to have an abortion, I’d support that. I’d give my daughter the money for it,” he added.
Giuliani went even further a decade later, when he voiced support for partial-birth abortion, a practice that is opposed by an overwhelming majority of Americans. Asked on CNN whether he supported a ban on the procedure, he replied: “No, I have not supported that, and I don’t see my position on that changing.”
From a conservative perspective, Giuliani is also on the wrong side of the gay marriage debate, which proved a potent issue in the 2004 election. He opposes a constitutional ban on gay marriage and says he supports “civil unions.”
Giuliani’s own messy marriages have provided endless fodder for New York tabloids and would undoubtedly be resurrected in a presidential campaign.
His first marriage, to a second cousin, was annulled. During his second marriage, he began dating a third woman and moved in with a gay couple. In order to clear the way for his third marriage, Giuliani called a news conference to announce plans for a divorce from his surprised second wife, who accused him of “open and notorious adultery” with a fourth woman.
Opposition researchers for other Republican hopefuls are already salivating over the prospect of reminding conservatives that Giuliani endorsed liberal Democrat Mario Cuomo for New York governor in 1994. Moreover, Giuliani once called President Reagan’s attorney general, conservative icon Edwin Meese III, a “sleaze.”
In 2004, Giuliani’s judgment was questioned when he talked President Bush into nominating Bernard Kerik as secretary of Homeland Security. The former New York City police commissioner was forced to withdraw from consideration amid a flurry of allegations about his personal life, which turned into a major embarrassment for Bush.
When such episodes and Giuliani’s social views are used against him during a primary election, his poll numbers are expected to fall. National Review magazine has already published a cover photo of Giuliani in a blonde wig and garish red lipstick.
“You can say that someone is pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-gay rights, but that’s not the same as a 30-second ad,” says Charlie Cook, publisher of Cook Political Report. “It’s the difference between just sort of seeing somebody and smacking them in the face with a fish. It’s a big, big, big difference.”
Although Giuliani, a former prosecutor, has called for tougher security along the U.S.-Mexico border, he has also bragged of providing city services to the multitudes of illegal immigrants flooding New York City.
Perhaps the only thing that could make conservatives hold their noses and vote for Giuliani is the fear that Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York would otherwise win the White House.
“If the Democratic candidate was Hillary Clinton, and somehow Rudolph Giuliani was the last man standing on the Republican side, I dare say that conservative-minded voters would overwhelmingly vote for him,” says Long, of the Conservative Party.
Patrick Sammon agrees.
“Ultimately, Republicans — even the most conservative ones — will be more afraid of Hillary than they are of Giuliani,” he says.
Of course, the question is moot if Giuliani decides not to throw his hat in the ring. During a visit to Baltimore in July, he said he is “seriously considering” a White House bid.
Asked about his intentions last week on CNN, he said, “I don’t know. We’ll see next year.”
Pressed on how he would make the decision, he added: “You make it sometime next year, sometime in 2007. I think all the people who are fortunate enough to be in a position where anybody even asks you that question, which sort of for the kid from Brooklyn, sets you back a little.”
Political columnist David Yepsen, of the Des Moines Register, is not yet sold on the certainty of a Giuliani candidacy.
“I wonder if he’s even going to run,” he says. “You don’t see him lining up people out here. You don’t see him courting activists by phone.”
Giuliani has been to Iowa only once since the 2004 election, compared to 10 visits by Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, another GOP White House hopeful. Giuliani hasn’t been to New Hampshire even once since the election, although he plans to visit next month.
“I have a hard time believing he can win the GOP nomination,” wrote Andrew Cline, editorial page editor of the UnionLeader, the influential conservative newspaper in Manchester, N.H. “Once opponents start beating up on Rudy, he’ll lose his post-9/11 halo and become a real person again. Then he’ll have to work for every vote just like the rest of them.”
Long agrees, which is why he is convinced Giuliani will not run.
“If he becomes a candidate, then the gloves come off and people start really going at him, and the shine comes off what once was ‘America’s Mayor,’ ” he says.
“I think he likes toying with the whole idea of running. He enjoys traveling around the country, increasing the viability of his company and making a lot of money. But he’s pretty high up right now and there’s no place else to go but down.”
Giuliani was the only Republican profiled in The Examiner’s “Meet the Next President” series who did not grant an interview. His spokeswoman, Sunny Mindel, did not respond to telephone and e-mail requests for an interview and scolded a reporter who finally tracked her down on her cell phone.
“I don’t think he is running,” Cook says. “There are just so many different reasons why Giuliani shouldn’t run, that he won’t run.”
Yepsen believes that even if Giuliani were to, he needs to work on his people skills.
“I’m not sure he can do retail campaigning one on one — that’s a minus in states like Iowa and New Hampshire,” he says. “He’s a big-city politician with an entourage, this retinue of media people and security and all of them.
“It’s like shades of Pappy Bush and Pete Wilson,” he adds, recalling earlier GOP hopefuls. “You gotta get rid of that bubble.”
Rudolph William Louis Giuliani
1944 » Born in Brooklyn, N.Y., son of a plumber’s assistant who once served time for armed robbery
1961 » Graduates from Bishop Loughlin Memorial High School, Brooklyn
1965 » Graduates from Manhattan College in the Bronx
1968 » Graduates from New York University Law School, marries second cousin Regina Peruggi
1969 » Clerks for Judge Lloyd MacMahon, U.S. District for the Southern District of New York
1970 » Joins U.S. Attorney’s Office
1973 » Named chief of narcotics unit
1975 » Moves to Washington to
become Associate Deputy Attorney General
1981 » Named Associate Attorney General, No. 3 position in Justice Department
1982 » Marriage annulled
1983 » U.S. Attorney, Southern District of York
1984 » Marries Donna Hanover. The couple will eventually have two children.
1989 » Runs for mayor of New York, loses to David Dinkins
1993 » Elected mayor of New York
2000 » Separates from second wife
2000 » Diagnosed with prostate cancer, he withdraws from U.S. Senate race against Hillary Rodham Clinton.
2001 » Hailed for his leadership on Sept. 11
2002 » Founds Giuliani Partners LLC
2003 » Marries Judith Nathan
2005 » Joins Bracewell & Patterson, a Texas law firm now called Bracewell & Giuliani
Giuliani’s positions on the issues
Abortion
Opposes ban on partial-birth abortion.
Gay marriage
Opposes constitutional ban. “I’m pro-gay rights.”
Gun control
Supports ban on assault weapons. As mayor, he called on New Yorkers “to re-energize the fight for gun control.”
Immigration
“We got to stop illegals from coming in,” he recently told Fox News. “And a tremendous amount of money should be put into the physical security that’s needed to do that.”
Iraq
Strongly supports President Bush’s policy.
Taxes
As mayor, reduced taxes in New York by several billion dollars.
What observers are saying
David Yepsen
Political columnist
Des Moines Register
PRO » “When he has been here, he’s been well received — he’s a rock star. He shows well in the polls.”
CON » “He’s too liberal on social issues. I mean, I just think the Republican Party is a pro-life party, anti-gay rights party. And I think that will really hurt Giuliani in the final analysis.”
Charlie Cook
Editor
Cook Political Report
PRO » “The potency of the imagery from 9/11 is very, very strong.”
CON » “I think the social, cultural issues would just cut him up in primaries and caucuses.”
Larry Sabato
Political scientist, University of Virginia
PRO » “America’s Mayor‚ will always be associated with his actions on September 11, which were seen by most as strong and decisive. Terrorism is his issue and it provides cover for more liberal positions on social issues.”
CON » “But those issues — pro-choice on abortion, pro-gay rights and so on — are poison for a large majority of conservative GOP primary and caucus participants.”
After studying the polls, consulting the handicappers and interviewing the candidates themselves, The Examiner has winnowed a list of some 30 potential presidential contenders down to 10. The result is Meet the Next President, a two-week series of in-depth profiles of the 10 people most likely to become the next leader of the free world. It’s a behind-the-scenes look at Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, front-runners and dark horses in the 2008 presidential sweepstakes – even before the 2006 midterms have been decided. With presidential campaigns starting earlier each election cycle, why wait?
