Evangelical Christian voters are facing an unusual problem: they may have too many choices when it comes to the 2016 presidential election. Several Republican candidates are vying for their support, viewing the voting bloc as a key stepping stone to the nomination.
More than ever before, evangelical sources say, candidates will need to focus on the issue of religious liberty to win this crucial vote, especially in states like Iowa. Many evangelicals felt Indiana Gov. Mike Pence failed to stand up for his state’s Religious Freedom and Restoration Act, which animated conservative Christians across the country.
Steve Deace, a leading talk radio personality in Iowa, believes the impact of Pence’s decision on voters in his state cannot be understated. “There’s a better chance Hillary Clinton will be the [GOP] nominee next year than Mike Pence,” Deace told the Washington Examiner. “Religious freedom is going to be the biggest issue. It has become a transcendent issue. It’s bigger than life, it’s bigger than marriage.”
Deace said evangelicals want a candidate who will challenge the GOP establishment and unite this divided voting bloc early, so the nominee will not be decided before these socially conservative voters have their say.
Bob Vander Plaats, the CEO of the social conservative group the Family Leader, is a kingmaker of sorts in Iowa who has gained influence in the state by leading the effort to remove three Iowa Supreme Court judges from office because of a decision in favor of gay marriage. In 2008, he endorsed former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. In 2012, he picked former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa.
This time, Vander Plaats expects to endorse someone around the Thanksgiving holiday, and said Huckabee, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz are the Republicans that have already impressed him.
“It will be easy for conservatives to divide their support quickly,” Vander Plaats said. “Hopefully there’s enough of us who have an interest in uniting around a candidate, one candidate, and trying to champion them across the finish line and not only in Iowa, but across the country.”
While it is still early, the wide variety of potential candidates in good standing with evangelical voters means the influence such voters could wield may be diminished significantly. John Green, an expert on religion and politics at the University of Akron, said many evangelicals appear torn between their heart and their head.
“In the primaries, evangelicals might have less of an impact on the result because their votes might be divided among a number of different candidates,” Green said. “The head approach is pragmatic, ‘Who can win? Even if my favorite candidate isn’t the nominee, that candidate is likely to be better than somebody the Democrats would nominate.’ ”
Two candidates who just launched their campaigns for president this week, Huckabee and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, are counting on evangelical support in order to win the GOP nomination.
Evangelical activists appear to be looking for fresh faces. Joe Carter, a senior editor at the Acton Institute and research director of Huckabee’s 2008 campaign, believes the old guard does not likely stand a chance.
“Huckabee and Santorum, they’re not going to be as key contenders anymore because some of the newer candidates in the race — Cruz, for example,” Carter told the Examiner. “Rick Santorum, he came out the other day and said that Bruce Jenner said that he’s a woman, [then] he’s a woman. I think little stumbles like that are really going to cause a lot of people to fall away.”
Deace said that after the candidate forum he moderated in Des Moines, Iowa, last month, he believes Cruz and Jindal to be the early favorites among evangelical voters. But many evangelical voters, he says, have interest in Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, and have not yet made a decision. Unlike recent elections past, Deace says evangelical listeners who are loyal members of his audience want someone who has the organization and financing capable of winning the Republican nomination.
“They’re tired of the false choice of choosing between the guy who believes in something and the guy who raises a bunch of money,” Deace said. “They want the guy who believes in something to raise a bunch of money. … They’re not necessarily looking for the nice guy, or the guy who says ‘Jesus’ the most.”
“The GOP always wants to get the moderate voters and that’s a small slice of the voters; they’re not going to get much,” Carter said. “Stick firm on the issues and your base will stand behind you. When you show weakness, you don’t gain anything and you lose people on your own side.”
