Virginia’s Senate race was Mark Warner’s to lose. And he almost did.
The incumbent Democrat enjoyed such a commanding, double-digit lead in polls against Republican challenger Ed Gillespie that neither party spent time, effort and money on the race during the final weeks before Tuesday’s election.
But in the end only 17,000 votes separated the candidates and the race wasn’t officially decided until Friday, when Gillespie conceded.
Despite this, Republican strategists and political experts reject the idea that the GOP should have done more to help the challenger and missed a golden opportunity to seize yet another coveted Senate seat.
“The day after, I think a lot of the super PACs and party committees are just taking a look and you second guess yourself on something like this when you see it this close, I don’t think there’s any question about it,” said Tom Davis, a former Virginia Republican congressman who closely follows the state’s politics.
But Davis brushed off the notion that the GOP should have detected warning signs earlier that Warner was vulnerable, saying the race “didn’t break until late.”
Virginia political expert Stephen J. Farnsworth agreed that it would be unfair to blame Republicans for neglecting Gillespie, saying “nobody saw this coming.”
“Hindsight is 20/20, and I’m sure some Republicans are thinking as they look at the Virginia race that this might be the one that got away. But the truth is, if the Republicans had ramped up their resources, the Democrats would have ramped up their resources too,” said Farnsworth, who teaches political science at the University of Mary Washington.
“It wasn’t as if only one party ignored this race. Basically everybody in politics ignored this race.”
A similar situation occurred last year in the Virginia gubernatorial race, when Republican Ken Cuccinelli trailed in the polls but surprised many by losing to Democrat Terry McAuliffe by only 2.5 percentage points.
“Hindsight is 20/20, but nobody’s polling — the Democrats’ or the Republicans’ polling — showed the [Virginia Senate] race in a position where it was,” said a longtime Virginia GOP strategist. “Honestly, had there been surveys that showed the race competitive, trust me when I say that everybody and their mother would’ve been in here trying to take out Mark Warner.”
Exactly why pollsters failed to predict Gillespie’s strong showing has both parties scratching their heads.
“It’s a question that quite frankly needs to be asked, because that’s the issue,” said the strategist, who requested to speak on background.
The strategist also suggested that perhaps GOP national committees should keep a reserve bank account to help with late-breaking races.
“There’s an argument for that,” he said. “But in a year when national Republican committees were outraised and outspent [by Democratic committees], it’s a tall order to fill.”
And with Republicans winning several Senate seats that essentially were toss-ups on Election Day, including North Carolina, Colorado and Kansas, enabling the party to take control of the Senate, experts say it’s hard to argue with how the party spent its campaign resources.
“Overall, the Republicans can feel very good about the way they allocated their money this election cycle,” Farnsworth said. “There were a lot of close races around the country where significant energy and funding by Republicans and Republicans-allied outside groups made a difference.”
Despite Warner winning by less than 1 percentage point, Gillespie surprised some by not calling for a recount. But two statewide recounts have been held in Virginia the past decade, both for attorney general races, and both showed little discrepancy in the original count.
“Virginia has had experience with recounts, and the recounts have shown that the state is pretty professional when it comes to getting the numbers right the first time,” Farnsworth said. “We’re no Florida.”
He added that a 17,000-vote margin is an immense hurdle to overcome in a recount.
“In many ways not having a recount might endear Gillespie with voters the next time he’s on the ballot,” Farnsworth said. “You never want to look like sore loser in politics.”
And many expect that Gillespie’s surprisingly strong showing will motivate the GOP to enthusiastically endorse him for a future contest.
“It’s been a long time since a [Virginia] Republican came this close in a marquee race like this,” Farnsworth said. “Make no mistake about it: Gillespie was given a tough hand and he played it better than anyone anticipated.”
