Fox News on Tuesday finalized the field for the crucial first televised presidential debate, inviting the 10 Republicans polling highest in the race for their party’s 2016 nomination.
The selections were almost anticlimactic, tracking with other widely monitored polling averages that as early as mid July offered a glimpse of who was likely to be on stage in Cleveland this Thursday. Fox News, using its own polling average based on a compilation of the most recent national surveys of Republican primary voters, formally invited Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Chris Christie and John Kasich.
“The chance of anyone tripping and splitting their pants on the way up to the podium is pretty low with these candidates, but I expect some of the lower polling ones to take a few risks to distinguish themselves,” Republican operative Josh Holmes said. “The entire process has generated a lot of enthusiasm and my guess is that viewers Thursday night will be reminded of the depth of quality Republican candidates in the field.”
The first debate marks a transition to the next phase in the campaign, with every candidate in the top 10 having something to prove — and much to lose by stumbling.
Can Bush, the former Florida governor, prove to a skeptical GOP base that he’s a conservative fighter and not a carbon copy of his father and brother, Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush? Can Walker, the Wisconsin governor, shine under the pressure of the national klieg lights for the first time? Can Huckabee, the former Fox News television personality and Arkansas governor, prove that he’s more than a bombastic, albeit likable, social conservative? Can Carson, a retired pediatric neurosurgeon who has never held political office, convince voters that he has the chops to serve as president?
Can Cruz, the Texas senator, expand his appeal beyond the Tea Party? Can Rubio, the Florida senator, overcome doubts about his age and breadth of experience? Can Paul, the senator from Kentucky, energize what detractors charge has been a moribund campaign stuck in neutral? Can the feisty Kasich avoid lecturing Republicans who disagree with him on issues like expanding Medicaid under Obamacare? Can Christie, the New Jersey governor, recapture the luster that once made him the Republican to beat in 2016? And, then there’s Trump, the New York businessman/entertainer leading all the polls.
Will Trump find away to hog all of the attention and own the post-debate headlines by using his airtime to attack others and go on Bulworth-worthy tirade against the so-called GOP Establishment? Or, will he play it safe and subtle in attempt to prove that Republicans he’s viable in the general election and can be trusted with the nuclear launch codes? Which Trump shows up, and how the other nine contenders react to him, could determine the course of the debate. Trump has said in interviews that he’s never debated before and didn’t plan to hold prep sessions.
“Donald Trump poses a specific challenge: He brings a lack of order and predictability to the stage and the potential exists for the debate to decline into chaos,” said Republican consultant Eric Fehrnstrom, who helped 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney navigate more than 20 primary debates. “Success might very well depend on how well you can distance yourself from Trump without getting into an ugly fight with him.”
Fox News’ Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace are moderating the debate, which is likely to skip the opening statements given the volume of candidates and get right to tight question-and answer-sessions that allow short rebuttal opportunities to any contender who is referenced or attacked by another. “I’ve got some doozies in there,” Wallace said in an interview with the Washington Post, regarding the questions he’s preparing to ask Thursday evening.
Not invited to the main event, and headed for the candidate forum that Fox News is scheduled to broadcast Thursday evening, prior to the prime time debate, were Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki. Perry, the Texas governor and one-time 2012 front-runner (before poor debate performances tripped him up) was running just out of the top 10 in most polling averages.
Missing out on the first opportunity to pitch his new and improved candidates to an expected large cable television audience has to sting, despite what are sure to be statements that it’s still early in the campaign and one debate doesn’t mean that much. Indeed, Perry’s strategy for bolting into contention is heavily reliant on strong debate performances that allow him to demonstrate the breadth of his policy chops after three intense years of preparation for the 2016 contest.
Accommodating 16 candidates on one stage was impossible for any network attempting to broadcast a watchable debate; leading Fox News and CNN, host of September’s second debate, to draw the line at 10 podiums. As it is, veteran Republican consultants who have prepped candidates for past primary debates estimate each of the contenders will get no more than 10 minutes of talk time Thursday evening. But the constraints carry consequences desperate to broaden its appeal.
Some of the brightest GOP lights will be missing from the stage, among them Jindal, the 44-year-old accomplished Indian-American governor of Louisiana; and Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett Packard and the only Republican woman running for president. “Jindal is the brightest bulb on the tree; he’s someone the other candidates don’t want to debate. Fiorina is smart and tough and someone the other candidates don’t want to debate,” Republican consultant Alex Castellanos said.
“The second tier candidates must all feel like they are Bryce Harper but they’ve been sent down to the minor leagues,” added Castellanos, who has advised presidential candidates, “especially since a few of them have proven they can hit Major League pitching.”
Democrats are using the Republican festivities as a means to organize and raise money. And, they aren’t waiting for Thursday to mock the candidates and the two televised events. On Tuesday, the Democratic National Committee issued an email appeal from President Obama urging the party faithful to tune in and take note so they can be prepared to beat the Republicans in the general election next year.
“Now, it is true that we already have a pretty good idea of what all ten Republicans on that stage will say. I’m gonna bet that they’ll all promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act. They’ll all tell us that even though they aren’t scientists, we shouldn’t believe in the science behind climate change. They’ll all want to reverse course on immigration reform and marriage equality. They’re going to deny all of the progress we’ve made together over these past six years,” Obama said.
Disclosure: The author’s wife works as an adviser to Scott Walker.
