Cities in southern Florida and Texas had better prepare for Zika this summer, according to a new study that outlines the places where the virus could spread during the hotter months.
Zika has spread to more than 50 countries and territories around the world, but so far a majority of the 258 U.S. cases are from people who traveled to a country where the virus is spreading. However, that could change in the summer when mosquitoes that spread Zika through bites will be breeding and on the prowl.
A recent study looked at 50 cities where they know the mosquito Aedes aegypti resides. The mosquito is the primary carrier of Zika.
The researchers then looked at the transmission of other mosquito-borne viruses such as dengue, and the flow of travelers to a city from a Zika-affected country, according to the study published last week in the journal PLOS: Current Outbreaks.
By mid-July, each of the 50 cities will have an environment suitable for the mosquito to thrive.
The study found that the highest amount of mosquitoes is likely to occur in cities in southern Florida such as Miami and south Texas such as Brownville, which is near the Mexican border.
“Higher poverty rates in cities along the U.S.-Mexico border may correlate with factors that increase human exposure to Aedes aegypti,” the study found.
Researchers said lower-income areas are prone to a higher risk of infectious diseases.
“Poverty has been linked to a number of indicators of elevated exposure to mosquitoes such as lower usage rates of air conditioning and less efficient cooling options, poorer housing infrastructure such as screening of windows, as well as decreased access to safe water and sanitation,” the study found.
However, the abundance of mosquitoes could fluctuate as federal and local agencies employ strategies for killing them.
While southern cities are expected to be hit hard, Zika could also pop up in cities as far north as New York and far west as Sacramento. The risk in Sacramento is relatively low, but the Zika risk is moderate in cities along the eastern seaboard such as New York, Washington and Philadelphia.
So far, Zika isn’t spreading in the U.S. via mosquito, but it has spread in a small number of cases through sexual transmission. Part of the reason is that Aedes aegypti doesn’t spread in the winter months of December-March.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said it expects limited outbreaks in the U.S.
