MANCHESTER, N.H. – Billionaire Donald Trump should not be taken seriously as a presidential candidate or as a commentator on policy or politics. But as the embodiment of grass-roots dissatisfaction with both party establishments, Trump’s popularity represents a potent sentiment that the other presidential candidates are struggling to tap into. The Tea Parties that defined the 2010 elections were characterized by passion, anger, and exasperation with the political establishment. Some of that energy and sentiment has cooled down, but there is still a significant portion of the electorate whose politics amount to, “We’re mad as hell, and we’re not going to take it anymore.”
This visceral feeling explains the appeal of the brash and irreverent Trump, who clocked in at 17 percent in an April 22 New Hampshire primary poll by American Research Group.
Donald Trump will not win 17 percent in next year’s New Hampshire primary. In all likelihood, he will drop out of the race before New Hampshire. So who will eventually get the votes of Trump’s current supporters? Will anyone?
Rep. Charlie Bass, R-N.H., told me that Trump’s shtick as an outspoken outsider captures at least part of the winning formula for New Hampshire. “He makes a fool out of himself,” Bass said, almost as a compliment. The New Hampshire congressman says his home state’s independent streak rewards “the one who can distinguish himself.” John McCain’s “maverick” reputation helped him win the New Hampshire primary in 2000 and 2008. The pugnacious Pat Buchanan won in 1996. “A candidate who is too careful will never win,” Bass said.
Bass may not have had a specific candidate in mind, but for many New Hampshire Republicans, there’s a guy who perfectly fits the bill of “too careful.”
“Mitt Romney is a very good and qualified man,” businessman Dick Rebolledo told me in Keene, N.H., “but he doesn’t set anyone on fire.”
One elected official in New Hampshire saw this firsthand in 2008, when she volunteered for Romney. The former Massachusetts governor had very few volunteers making phone calls and knocking on doors for him – a sign of low enthusiasm. This time around, this local Republican official (who spoke on condition of anonymity) isn’t backing Romney.
“The average everyday Joe does not connect with that man,” she concluded after working the state for him. “He does not resonate.”
The rest of the top potential contenders – former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels – don’t seem to be resonating with the passionate base, either. “They’re all so – nice,” the local politician said, with a note of derision.
You can see broad appetite for Trump’s sort of frankness, which is a rare trait in Washington. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., is no firebrand speaker, but as the keynote speaker at the Cheshire County Lincoln Day fundraiser last week, he won plaudits for his casual honesty – including harsh criticism of Romney’s health-care record – which contrasts with typical senatorial discretion.
But many New Hampshire politicos say the Trump constituency shouldn’t get too much attention. After all, his support may have peaked last week at one-sixth of those polled. Among the party die-hards and officials who showed up at the Cheshire County dinner and at a candidate forum in Manchester, there was very little support, suggesting that he would poll a lot worse among likely primary voters.
State House Majority Leader D.J. Bettencourt backed Romney four years ago and he dismisses the notion that the nominee needs to be a firebrand. In New Hampshire, he told me, “the Republican Party is about being grown up.”
When you look more closely at the state GOP, you see what he means. While New Hampshire was the epicenter of the 2010 Republican uprising – the party took over both chambers of the legislature, picked up both U.S. House seats, and won an open-seat Senate contest – the party didn’t elect the stereotypical unwashed Tea Party bomb-thrower.
The two GOP congressional victors were established politicians: Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta and moderate former congressman Charlie Bass. In the fall primary, while Delaware and Alaska were nominating insurgent conservatives, New Hampshire Republicans picked the establishment candidate, Atty. Gen. Kelly Ayotte, over Tea Party favorite Ovide LaMontagne.
Still, LaMontagne won 49 percent in that primary, confirming that the New Hampshire GOP always has a strong anti-establishment element. Come January, this could be the heart of an anti-Romney bloc.
Timothy P.Carney, The Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Monday and Thursday, and his stories and blog posts appear on ExaminerPolitics.com.
